WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™
Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.92L Bringing Heavy Rains to Florida; Edouard Forms in Central Atlantic
A small area of low pressure over South Florida (Invest 92L) is bringing heavy rains to South Florida and the waters of the Florida Straits, but Miami radar and satellite loops show that this activity is less organized than on Thursday. Strong upper level winds out of the north-northeast are creating a high 20 - 25 knots of wind shear, and the atmosphere is moderately dry to the north, interfering with development. While the circulation center of 92L is over land, development into a tropical depression is unlikely, but once the current westward 5 - 10 mph motion of 92L carries it over the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, development odds will increase. Ocean temperatures are a very warm 30°C (86°F) over the Eastern Gulf, but the presence of dry air and high wind shear of 15 - 25 knots should keep any development slow. As of Friday morning, rainfall amounts from 92L were mostly below 1" over South Florida, but the disturbance will be capable of dumping additional rains of 1 - 3" over the area through Saturday. Heavy rains from 92L will begin affecting Texas and the Mexican coast south of the Texas border on Monday, with the center of 92L likely to move ashore over Texas on Monday evening or Tuesday morning. None of the three reliable computer models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis develop 92L over the Gulf of Mexico. In their 8 am EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system 2-day and 5-day odds of development odds of 20% and 40%, respectively. I put these odds higher, at 30% and 50%, respectively. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 92L on Saturday afternoon.
Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Invest 92L over Florida, taken at approximately 12:30 pm EDT Friday September 12, 2014. Image credit: NASA.
Tropical Storm Edouard not a threat to land
Tropical Storm Edouard formed Thursday night in the Central Atlantic about 1000 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands. Edouard's formation date of September 12 came almost two weeks later than the typical August 31 formation date for the Atlantic's fifth named storm of the season. Satellite images show that Edouard is steadily organizing, and the official NHC forecast of Edouard becoming a Category 1 hurricane early next week appears to be on track. Edouard is not a threat to any land areas.
Figure 2. Latest satellite image of Edouard.
New African tropical wave 93L emerges
A well-organized tropical wave with plenty of spin (93L) emerged from the coast of Africa on Thursday, and was located a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verde Islands on Friday morning. Satellite images show 93L has only a small area of heavy thunderstorms, but the system already has some low-level spiral bands. Ocean temperatures are a very warm 28°C (82°F), wind shear is moderate (10 - 15 knots), and the atmosphere is moderately moist. None of the three reliable computer models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis develop 93L. In their 8 am EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system 2-day and 5-day odd of development odds of 20%. Given 93L's well-organized appearance on satellite images late Friday morning, I would put these odds at 40%. The storm is headed west-northwest at about 10 mph, and is unlikely to affect the Lesser Antilles Islands.
Tropical Storm Odile's rains avoiding Mexico
In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Odile is nearing hurricane strength, but satellite loops show that Odile's heavy rains are remaining offshore of Mexico as the storm moves northwest, parallel to the coast. Tropical moisture flowing northwards from Odile's circulation may bring heavy rains to Northern Mexico and the Southwest U.S. late next week.
Tropical Storm Kalmaegi forms east of the Philippines
In the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Kalmaegi is gathering strength in the waters east of the Philippines, and is on course to intensify into a typhoon that will hit the Philippines' Luzon Island on Sunday. Kalmaegi is then expected to cross the South China Sea and impact China early next week.
Hurricane expert Steve Gregory has a more detailed look at 92L and the rest of the tropics in his latest post.
Jeff Masters
Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Invest 92L over Florida, taken at approximately 12:30 pm EDT Friday September 12, 2014. Image credit: NASA.
Tropical Storm Edouard not a threat to land
Tropical Storm Edouard formed Thursday night in the Central Atlantic about 1000 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands. Edouard's formation date of September 12 came almost two weeks later than the typical August 31 formation date for the Atlantic's fifth named storm of the season. Satellite images show that Edouard is steadily organizing, and the official NHC forecast of Edouard becoming a Category 1 hurricane early next week appears to be on track. Edouard is not a threat to any land areas.
Figure 2. Latest satellite image of Edouard.
New African tropical wave 93L emerges
A well-organized tropical wave with plenty of spin (93L) emerged from the coast of Africa on Thursday, and was located a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verde Islands on Friday morning. Satellite images show 93L has only a small area of heavy thunderstorms, but the system already has some low-level spiral bands. Ocean temperatures are a very warm 28°C (82°F), wind shear is moderate (10 - 15 knots), and the atmosphere is moderately moist. None of the three reliable computer models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis develop 93L. In their 8 am EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system 2-day and 5-day odd of development odds of 20%. Given 93L's well-organized appearance on satellite images late Friday morning, I would put these odds at 40%. The storm is headed west-northwest at about 10 mph, and is unlikely to affect the Lesser Antilles Islands.
Tropical Storm Odile's rains avoiding Mexico
In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Odile is nearing hurricane strength, but satellite loops show that Odile's heavy rains are remaining offshore of Mexico as the storm moves northwest, parallel to the coast. Tropical moisture flowing northwards from Odile's circulation may bring heavy rains to Northern Mexico and the Southwest U.S. late next week.
Tropical Storm Kalmaegi forms east of the Philippines
In the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Kalmaegi is gathering strength in the waters east of the Philippines, and is on course to intensify into a typhoon that will hit the Philippines' Luzon Island on Sunday. Kalmaegi is then expected to cross the South China Sea and impact China early next week.
Hurricane expert Steve Gregory has a more detailed look at 92L and the rest of the tropics in his latest post.
Jeff Masters
The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.