All quiet in the Atlantic

Clouds and showers associated with a weak trough of low pressure extend off the east coast of Florida several hundred miles to the northeast. Wind shear has dropped to about 20 knots over this system, so some slow organization is possible over the next day as it moves east-northeast away from the U.S. coast. However, wind shear is expected to increase on Monday over the disturbance, as it approaches the cold front from an extratropical cyclone. The disturbance should merge with the front by Wednesday without developing into a tropical depression. None of the reliable computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation anywhere in the Atlantic over the coming week. Have a great 4th of July holiday week, everyone!

I'll post my July hurricane season outlook early Monday afternoon.

Jeff Masters