By:
Dr. Jeff Masters,
2:46 PM GMT on May 15, 2009
The possibility of a May subtropical storm forming near Florida next week now appear dim, according to the latest suite of runs by the GFS, UKMET, NOGAPS, and ECMWF global dynamical computer models. Yesterday's runs indicated that a small area of low shear air might develop over Florida next week, between the polar jet stream to the north and the subtropical jet stream to the south. However, the latest set of runs are showing a much reduced area of low shear, too small for a subtropical storm to form. Perhaps a better chance for a subtropical storm to form is in the mid-Atlantic a few hundred miles east of Bermuda. There, a large upper-level cold low has cut off from the jet stream, and it may spin in place long enough over the next week to develop a warm core and be classified as Subtropical Storm Ana. It is unlikely that a subtropical storm forming that far out in the Atlantic this early in the year would pose a threat to any land areas, with the possible exception of Bermuda.
Climatology of early-season Atlantic tropical cyclonesTropical storms are uncommon in the Atlantic before June 1, with only 26 named storms on record between 1851 - 2008. Five of these have made it to hurricane strength, and only one--
Hurricane Able of 1951--made it to major hurricane status. Last year's
Tropical Storm Arthur may be the deadliest May tropical cyclone on record. Though only a 40 mph tropical storm at landfall, Arthur killed five people in Belize and caused $78 million in damage. Three early-season storms have brought hurricane-force winds to land. The
March 1908 hurricane swept through the northern Lesser Antilles Islands as a Category 1 or 2 hurricane, destroying at least 24 boats and causing damage to buildings on St. Bartholomew.
Hurricane Able of 1951
brought sustained winds of 90 - 95 mph to the northern Bahama Islands, but caused little damage.
Hurricane 2 of May 1908 hit North Carolina's Outer Banks as a Category 1 hurricane, but also caused little damage.
Figure 1. Tracking map for the earliest hurricane to make landfall, the March 1908 hurricane in the northern Lesser Antilles Islands.
List of all early season (formed in January - May) Atlantic named stormsMay 31, 2008:
Tropical Storm ArthurMay 6, 2007:
Subtropical Storm AndreaApril 18, 2003:
Tropical Storm AnaApril 21, 1992:
Subtropical Storm 1May 6, 1981:
Tropical Storm ArleneJanuary 18, 1978:
Subtropical Storm 1May 21, 1976:
Subtropical Storm 1May 23, 1972:
Subtropical Storm AlphaMay 17, 1970:
Hurricane Alma (Category 1)
May 28, 1959:
Tropical Storm ArleneFebruary 2, 1953:
Tropical Storm AliceMay 25, 1952:
Tropical Storm 1May 15, 1951:
Hurricane Able (Category 3)
May 22, 1948:
Tropical Storm 1May 19, 1940:
Tropical Storm 1May 27, 1934:
Tropical Storm 1May 14, 1933:
Tropical Storm 1May 5, 1932:
Tropical Storm 1May 13, 1916:
Tropical Storm 1May 24, 1908:
Hurricane 2 (Category 1)
March 6, 1908:
Hurricane 1 (Category 2)
May 27, 1890:
Tropical Storm 1May 16, 1889:
Hurricane 1 (Category 1)
May 17, 1887:
Tropical Storm 2May 15, 1887:
Tropical Storm 1May 30, 1865:
Tropical Storm 1I'll have an update over the weekend if the models indicate a renewed tropical threat; otherwise, have a great weekend, and I'll be back on Monday.
Jeff Masters