Tropical Storm Vance formed in the Eastern Pacific on Thursday afternoon. The storm's heaviest rains will remain well offshore from Mexico through Sunday, but Vance is expected to make landfall in Mainland Mexico northwest of Puerto Vallarta on Tuesday night. Vance's moisture will likely bring heavy rain to Texas on Wednesday.
JeffMasters, • 3:05 PM GMT on October 31, 2014
An area of disturbed weather (95L) just north of the Virgin Islands is headed northwest at 10 to 15 mph. High wind shear makes development conditions marginal through Saturday, then almost impossible beginning on Sunday.
JeffMasters, • 3:22 PM GMT on October 30, 2014
An area of disturbed weather (95L) associated with a tropical wave interacting with an upper level trough of low pressure is a few hundred miles northeast of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, and has a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity. Wind shear will remain a high 20 - 30 knots through Friday, then increase to 30 - 50 knots Saturday and Sunday. These high wind shear values make development conditions marginal through Friday, then almost impossible beginning on Saturday.
JeffMasters, • 3:05 PM GMT on October 29, 2014
The heavy rains and strong gusty winds that began affecting the Northwest U.S. and Western Canadian coasts on Monday evening are due to a truly rare event: the remains of a Hawaiian hurricane getting slung into the coast as part of a large extratropical storm. The moisture is from Hurricane Ana, which, after making an extended tour just offshore of the Hawaiian islands last week, died on Sunday afternoon over the Pacific about 1,300 miles west of the California/Oregon border--unusually far to the northeast for a tropical cyclone to make it.
JeffMasters, • 4:03 PM GMT on October 28, 2014
Tropical Storm Hanna formed Monday morning off the coast of Nicaragua just six hours after NHC gave the system a 10% chance of development. Surface winds measured overnight by the ASCAT satellite showed sustained winds of 40 mph occurring off the northeast coast of Nicaragua, and visible satellite images just after sunrise on Monday morning confirmed the presence of a low-level surface circulation, prompting NHC to begin issuing tropical storm advisories.
JeffMasters, • 2:39 PM GMT on October 27, 2014
INVEST 94L in the Caribbean unlikely to develop - while an unusual cyclone in the Arabian Sea slowly intensifies.
JeffMasters, • 6:09 PM GMT on October 25, 2014
The remains of Tropical Depression Nine, which dissipated over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday night, were moving offshore of Belize into the Western Caribbean on Friday morning. This disturbance is being labeled Invest 94L by NHC. Belize radar and satellite loops show that 94L has only a few poorly-organized clusters of heavy thunderstorms over the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, Honduras, Guatemala, and the adjacent waters.
JeffMasters, • 2:48 PM GMT on October 24, 2014
Small and weak Tropical Depression Nine dissipated over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula Wednesday night, shortly after making landfall near 8 pm EDT Wednesday October 22, 2014 on the western shore of the peninsula. By Saturday, some of the spin associated with TD 9 may emerge over the Western Caribbean, and we should carefully watch this area on Sunday and Monday for tropical cyclone development--though none of our reliable models were predicting development in their Thursday morning runs.
JeffMasters, • 1:45 PM GMT on October 23, 2014
Tropical Depression Nine has formed in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche, and will bring dangerous heavy rains of 5 - 10 inches to Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula the next two days. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft was investigating TD 9 on Wednesday morning, and found a well-defined surface circulation, top surface winds near 35 mph, and a central pressure of 1003 mb at 8:25 am EDT.
JeffMasters, • 1:56 PM GMT on October 22, 2014
An area of low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche (93L) contains moisture and spin from the Eastern Pacific's Tropical Storm Trudy, which made landfall near Acapulco last weekend. 93L will bring heavy rains to Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, Western Cuba, and South Florida Wednesday through Friday.
JeffMasters, • 3:25 PM GMT on October 21, 2014
September 2014 was Earth's warmest September on record, the period January - September was tied with 1998 and 2010 as the warmest first three-quarters of any year on record, and the past 12 months--October 2013 through September 2014--was the warmest consecutive 12-month period among all months since records began in 1880, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) today. If 2014 maintains the same temperature departure from average for the remainder of the year as was observed during January - September, it will be the warmest calendar year on record.
JeffMasters, • 5:38 PM GMT on October 20, 2014
Moisture from Tropical Storm Trudy, which made landfall on the Pacific coast of Mexico about 75 miles east-southeast of Acapulco on Saturday morning, has moved northwards across Mexico into the southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. A large area of low pressure (93L) is forming there, and will bring heavy rains to Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, Western Cuba, and South Florida on Wednesday through Friday.
JeffMasters, • 3:29 PM GMT on October 20, 2014
JeffMasters, • 4:54 PM GMT on October 19, 2014
Hurricane Gonzalo made a direct hit on the island of Bermuda near 8:30 pm EDT Friday night rated by NHC as a strong Category 2 storm with sustained 110 mph winds. Sustained winds at the Bermuda Airport peaked at 76 mph, with a gust to 96 mph, as the northern eyewall passed overhead between 8 - 9 pm ADT. After a calm lasting about an hour, when the pressure sank to 953 mb, the southern eyewall hit, with stronger winds than the northern eyewall--93 mph, gusting to 113 mph, at 11:55 pm ADT.
JeffMasters, • 2:46 PM GMT on October 18, 2014
The winds are rising and huge waves are pounding Bermuda as powerful Category 3 Hurricane Gonzalo closes in with sustained 125 mph winds. Gonzalo is gradually weakening, but not weakening fast enough to spare Bermuda from a devastating strike by a major hurricane.
JeffMasters, • 3:10 PM GMT on October 17, 2014
Hurricane Warnings are flying for Bermuda as one of the most powerful hurricanes ever to threaten the island, dangerous Category 4 Hurricane Gonzalo, aims its 145 mph winds towards Bermuda. This is not a hurricane that will weaken quickly.
JeffMasters, • 3:47 PM GMT on October 16, 2014
A Hurricane Watch is up for Bermuda as Powerful Category 4 Hurricane Gonzalo aims its 130 mph winds towards the island. Gonzalo is the Atlantic's first Category 4 hurricane since October 2, 2011, when Hurricane Ophelia reached 140 mph winds. Gonzalo walloped the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands on Monday into Tuesday morning while rapidly intensifying from a tropical storm to a strong Category 1 hurricane.
JeffMasters, • 4:30 PM GMT on October 15, 2014
Intensifying Category 2 Hurricane Gonzalo is heading northwest at 13 mph away from Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands after plowing through the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands overnight, bringing Category 1 hurricane conditions. A Personal Weather Station (PWS) on St. Barthelemy recorded sustained winds of 82 mph, gusting to 108 mph, between 3 - 5 pm AST Monday.
JeffMasters, • 1:23 PM GMT on October 14, 2014
Hurricane warnings are flying in the British Virgin Islands as strengthening Tropical Storm Gonzalo marches west-northwest at 10 mph though the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands. The storm passed over Antigua Island between 10 am - 11 am AST on Monday, and the island reported a sustained wind of 67 mph gusting to 88 mph late Monday morning.
JeffMasters, • 3:40 PM GMT on October 13, 2014
For the first time since September 2013, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is issuing simultaneous advisories for two Atlantic named storms, thanks to the formation of Tropical Storm Gonzalo on Sunday afternoon. Satellite loops and Martinique radar showed on Sunday afternoon that Gonzalo was well-organized with plenty of spin, spiral bands, and a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity that was increasing in areal extent and intensity.
JeffMasters, • 7:37 PM GMT on October 12, 2014
An area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave located about 200 miles east of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands on Sunday morning (Invest 90L) was headed west at about 10 - 15 mph, and is probably already a tropical depression. Satellite loops and Martinique radar showed 90L was well-organized with plenty of spin, spiral bands, and a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity.
JeffMasters, • 4:52 PM GMT on October 12, 2014
Tropical Storm Fay is here, the sixth named storm of this quiet 2014 Atlantic hurricane season. Fay's formation date of October 10 comes just over a month later than the typical September 8 formation date for the season's sixth named storm. Bermuda is the only land area Fay poses a threat to.
Jeff Masters • 5:13 PM GMT on October 11, 2014
Subtropical Depression Seven formed in the Atlantic at 11 am EDT Friday. The depression, located about 590 miles south of Bermuda, was headed northwest at 10 mph, and Bermuda is the only land area the storm poses a threat to. A tropical storm watch has been posted for the island, and the 11 am EDT Wind Probability Forecast from NHC gave Bermuda a 14% chance of seeing tropical storm-force winds of 39+ mph.
JeffMasters, • 3:38 PM GMT on October 10, 2014
The winds are rising on Japan's Okinawa Island as Earth's most powerful tropical cyclone of 2014, Super Typhoon Vongfong, steams north-northwest at 8 mph. Vongfong began a turn to the north on Wednesday morning, and is likely to pass over or just to the north of Okinawa near 18 UTC (2 pm EDT) Saturday.
JeffMasters, • 3:53 PM GMT on October 09, 2014
Earth's most powerful tropical cyclone since 2013's devastating Super Typhoon Haiyan, Super Typhoon Vongfong, peaked in intensity Tuesday with top sustained winds of 180 mph, and has weakened slightly to peak winds of 165 mph as of 12 UTC Wednesday (8 am EDT), according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC.)
JeffMasters, • 2:21 PM GMT on October 08, 2014
Earth's most powerful tropical cyclone since 2013's devastating Super Typhoon Haiyan is Super Typhoon Vongfong. Vongfang is in the midst of a very impressive bought of rapid intensification that took it from a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds at 18 UTC Monday to Category 5 strength with 180 mph winds at 18 UTC Tuesday, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. These are the highest winds of any tropical cyclone they have rated since Super Typhoon Haiyan's 195 mph winds of November 7, 2013.
JeffMasters, • 8:46 PM GMT on October 07, 2014
Category 4 Super Typhoon Vongfong is at the verge of Category 5 strength with 155 mph winds as it continues a period of rapid intensification in the waters about 1000 miles south of Japan. The typhoon is expected to turn to the north on Wednesday, and is a threat to hit Japan on Monday.
JeffMasters, • 3:07 PM GMT on October 07, 2014
Typhoon Phanfone made landfall as a Category 1 storm with 80 mph winds on Japan's main island of Honshu at 7:16 pm EDT Sunday, October 5, 2014 near the city of Hamamatsu in western Shizuoka Prefecture, about 125 miles west-southwest of Tokyo. A few hours later, the core of the typhoon passed over Tokyo, where sustained winds of 53 mph, gusting to 70 mph were recorded.
JeffMasters, • 3:30 PM GMT on October 06, 2014
Typhoon Phanfone is weakening as is races northeastward towards the main Japanese island of Kyushu. Japanese radar showed that heavy rains from Phanfone were affecting most of the main Japanese islands of Kyushu and Honshu on Sunday morning. High wind shear and cooler waters will continue to weaken Phanfone, and it should be no stronger than a Category 1 storm at its point of closest approach to Tokyo, near 9 pm EDT Sunday.
JeffMasters, • 1:38 PM GMT on October 05, 2014
Dangerous Category 3 Typhoon Phanfone is pounding the small islands south of the main Japanese island of Kyushu with torrential rains and wind gusts of up to 101 mph as the storm heads north towards Tokyo. High wind shear and cooler waters will continue to weaken Phanfone, and it should be no stronger than a Category 1 storm at its point of closest approach to Tokyo. Heavy rains from Phanfone are the main threat, and are likely to bring dangerous flash flooding and mudslides.
JeffMasters, • 7:02 PM GMT on October 04, 2014
Dangerous Category 3 Typhoon Phanfone is steaming northwest at 11 mph towards Japan, and is likely to bring that nation serious flooding problems over the weekend.
JeffMasters, • 3:39 PM GMT on October 03, 2014
Typhoon Phanfone has intensified into a dangerous Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds. Ocean temperatures will cool sharply and wind shear will rise on Saturday as the typhoon approaches Japan, weakening the storm. The models have come into better agreement on the track of Phanfone, but it remains uncertain if the typhoon will hit the main Japanese island of Honshu as the GFS, GFDL, and European models are calling for, or pass just offshore.
JeffMasters, • 3:28 PM GMT on October 02, 2014
The traditional busiest month of the Atlantic hurricane season, September, is now over, and we are on the home stretch. Just three weeks remain of the peak danger portion of the season. September 2014 ended up with just two named storms forming--Dolly and Edouard. With only five named storms so far in 2014, this is the quietest Atlantic hurricane season since 1986, when we also had just five named storms by the beginning of October.
JeffMasters, • 3:59 PM GMT on October 01, 2014