Hurricane Matthew became a powerful Category 4 storm on Friday afternoon, now packing winds of 140 mph in the southern Caribbean Sea. Matthew is expected to turn north this weekend, potentially affecting Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti and entering the Bahamas by early next week. Matthew's long-term future is highly uncertain, but it could affect parts of the East Coast anywhere from Florida to Maine by later next week into the weekend.
Bob Henson • 10:43 PM GMT on September 30, 2016
Hurricane Matthew put on an impressive and unexpected display of rapid intensification overnight, becoming a major Category 3 hurricane in the central Caribbean. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft was in Matthew on Friday morning, and between 7 am and 10 am EDT found that Matthew’s winds continued to rise and the pressure to fall.
Jeff Masters • 3:00 PM GMT on September 30, 2016
The 13th named storm of the 2016 Atlantic season became Hurricane Matthew on Thursday afternoon in the eastern Caribbean. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the southeast Caribbean islands of Bonaire, Curacao, and Aruba, as well as parts of the coast of Colombia. Matthew will move west till the weekend, then is expected to head north, perhaps threatening Cuba, Jamaica, and/or Hispaniola. Matthew may proceed into The Bahamas and potentially threaten the U.S. East Coast, although there is great uncertainty beyond the five-day period.
Bob Henson • 10:06 PM GMT on September 29, 2016
Tropical Storm Watches are posted for Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao as Tropical Storm Matthew advances westwards at 16 mph across the eastern Caribbean. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft was in Matthew on Thursday morning, and at 9 am EDT found hurricane-force winds of 75 mph in a small region to the northeast of the storm’s center. However, Satellite loops on Thursday morning showed that Matthew was struggling with high wind shear.
Jeff Masters • 2:10 PM GMT on September 29, 2016
Newly christened Tropical Storm Matthew pushed across the Lesser Antilles islands on Wednesday, bringing heavy rain and gusty squalls. Matthew is expected to become a hurricane that may threaten Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti toward the weekend, with a potential track toward the U.S. later next week. Before then, the Washington, D.C. area will be dealing with a flood risk due to torrential rains that could top 8" by the weekend.
Bob Henson • 10:37 PM GMT on September 28, 2016
Tropical Storm Warnings are flying in the Lesser Antilles Islands thanks to newly-formed Tropical Storm Matthew. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft found on Wednesday morning that Invest 97L had finally developed a closed circulation, and had surface winds near 60 mph in a powerful cluster of thunderstorms located about 50 miles east of Martinique.
Jeff Masters • 3:23 PM GMT on September 28, 2016
Air Force Hurricane Hunters were unable to find a closed circulation in the midst of Invest 97L, but the tropical wave was still on the verge of becoming a tropical storm on Tuesday night or Wednesday. After sweeping through the Lesser Antilles, 97L will move through the southeast Caribbean, potentially heading north toward the Greater Antilles, The Bahamas, and the eastern U.S. next week. Meanwhile, two tropical storms are spinning harmlessly in the Central and Eastern Pacific, while fast-weakening Typhoon Megi has made landfall in China after a deadly rampage through Taiwan.
Bob Henson and Jeff Masters • 10:42 PM GMT on September 27, 2016
A tropical wave located about 400 miles east-southeast of Barbados in the Lesser Antilles Islands late on Tuesday morning (Invest 97L) was headed west to west-northwest at 15 - 20 mph, and appears likely to develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm later on Tuesday. Bolting to Category 4 status with 130 mph winds just before landfall, Typhoon Magi crashed into central Taiwan at full force on Tuesday evening local time.
Jeff Masters and Bob Henson • 4:08 PM GMT on September 27, 2016
Water from the Cedar River will overspread a large swath of Cedar Rapids, Iowa’s second-largest city, on Tuesday, in a flood expected to be the city's worst on record aside from a disastrous 2008 event. Meanwhile, Typhoon Megi has strengthened into a Category 3 storm only a day away from slamming into Taiwan, and the tropical wave dubbed Invest 97L continues to organize as it moves toward the Caribbean.
Bob Henson and Jeff Masters • 10:12 PM GMT on September 26, 2016
A tropical wave located about 1000 miles east-southeast of Barbados in the Lesser Antilles Islands late Monday morning (Invest 97L) was headed west at 15 - 20 mph, and has the potential to become a dangerous storm in the Caribbean later this week. Satellite loops on Monday morning showed 97L was growing considerably more organized.
Jeff Masters • 3:11 PM GMT on September 26, 2016
A tropical wave located midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa on Sunday afternoon was headed west at 15 - 20 mph, and has the potential to become a dangerous storm in the Caribbean later this week. NHC designated this system Invest 97L on Sunday morning.
Jeff Masters • 5:38 PM GMT on September 25, 2016
A tropical wave now crossing the Atlantic could develop next week as it approaches the Lesser Antilles Islands and moves into the Caribbean. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Karl is heading northeast after brushing Bermuda with gusty winds and heavy rain, and Taiwan is bracing for Typhoon Megi, which may strike the island as a formidable system early next week.
Jeff Masters and Bob Henson • 5:23 PM GMT on September 24, 2016
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bermuda, as an intensifying Tropical Storm Karl will swing close to the island early Saturday, possibly as a minimal hurricane. Meanwhile, a tropical wave moving across the Atlantic this weekend could develop into a tropical storm or hurricane in the Caribbean next week, and a strengthening Tropical Storm Megi poses yet another typhoon threat to Taiwan.
Bob Henson and Jeff Masters • 4:14 PM GMT on September 23, 2016
A Tropical Storm Watch is up for the island of Bermuda, as Tropical Depression Karl steams northwest towards the island at 17 mph. Karl continues to remain disorganized due to wind shear, but the shear is forecast to fall on Friday, which may allow Karl to strengthen enough to spread tropical storm-force winds to Bermuda.
Jeff Masters and Bob Henson • 3:42 PM GMT on September 22, 2016
The possibility of two hurricanes--or even one--in the Atlantic this week is diminishing, as the two tropical storms far out at sea are falling short of model projections and forecaster expectations. Meanwhile, two new systems in the Pacific could end up being significant, especially one in the Northwest Pacific that could threaten China and/or Taiwan as a typhoon next week.
Bob Henson • 4:49 PM GMT on September 21, 2016
NOAA and NASA have both found August 2016 to be Earth's warmest August since record keeping began in 1880. August also marked the 16th consecutive month that NOAA’s global monthly temperature record was broken, which is the longest such streak since global temperature records began in 1880. Already this year, 18 nations or territories have set all-time record highs, the largest such total set in a single year.
Jeff Masters and Bob Henson • 9:24 PM GMT on September 20, 2016
Tropical activity was ramping down in one ocean basin and ramping up in another on Tuesday morning. There were two decaying tropical storms in the Pacific--one soon to leave Japan, the other heading for Mexico’s Baja California coast--while in the Atlantic, we have two tropical storms, including one just christened. Tropical Storm Lisa should remain well out to sea, while Tropical Storm Karl is expected to become a hurricane that may threaten Bermuda.
Bob Henson • 4:42 PM GMT on September 20, 2016
The Northern Hemisphere tropics remain quite active during this final week of summer. Newly upgraded Hurricane Paine in the East Pacific is heading toward Mexico, while Major Typhoon Malakas in the Northwest Pacific plowing into western Japan. Meanwhile, hurricane watchers in the U.S. and Caribbean are casting their eyes toward Tropical Storm Karl, which has the potential to become a significant hurricane while still far from any land areas.
Bob Henson • 4:43 PM GMT on September 19, 2016
Like some annoying insect that keeps buzzing around and won’t go away despite repeated attempts to swat it, Tropical Depression Julia continues to spin away a few hundred miles off the coast of South Carolina. Satellite images on Sunday morning showed that Julia continued to struggle with high wind shear, with the low-level center of the storm completely exposed to view and the heaviest thunderstorms several hundred miles from the center.
Jeff Masters • 3:28 PM GMT on September 18, 2016
Tropical Depression Julia continues to cling to life as it spins a few hundred miles off the coast of South Carolina. Tropical Storm Karl was headed west at 13 mph in the central tropical Atlantic late Saturday morning, and does not pose a threat to any land areas for at least the next five days.
Jeff Masters • 3:06 PM GMT on September 17, 2016
The National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) announced on Thursday that 2016 was tied with 2007 for the lowest extent of Arctic sea ice on record, behind only 2012. This summer’s polar weather didn’t fit the classic template for major ice loss, which makes the near-record depletion all the more striking and concerning.
Bob Henson • 9:46 PM GMT on September 16, 2016
It was a busy early Friday morning for tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, with three storms active at the same time—Ian, Julia and Karl. Late Friday morning, we were down to two named storms, though, thanks to the demise of Tropical Storm Ian in the central Atlantic. Julia is spinning a few hundred miles east of the Carolinas, while Karl is moving through the eastern tropical Atlantic. In the Pacific, Category 3 Typhoon Malakas will swing very close to Taiwan.
Jeff Masters and Bob Henson • 4:00 PM GMT on September 16, 2016
Even as the remains of Super Typhoon Meranti continue to spin down in China, where widespread damage was reported, Typhoon Malakas is gaining strength and could take a swipe at Taiwan this weekend. Malakas is expected to pass just east of Taiwan and over or near Japan's southwesternmost islands as a Category 3 typhoon.
Bob Henson • 10:18 PM GMT on September 15, 2016
After the surprise emergence of Tropical Storm Julia on Tuesday evening while the center was located over land in northeastern Florida, the storm appears determined to stick around through the weekend and annoy coastal South Carolina and North Carolina with days of intermittent rain showers.
Jeff Masters • 1:56 PM GMT on September 15, 2016
Typhoon Meranti, still at Category 3 strength, will make landfall on the China coast Wednesday night local time (Wednesday afternoon EDT] with the potential for significant storm surge, torrential rains, and flooding. As it swept just south of Taiwan packing top sustained winds as high as 190 mph, Meranti knocked out power to more than 600,000 residents and injured dozens.
Bob Henson and Jeff Masters • 6:50 PM GMT on September 14, 2016
In a rare surprise, the Atlantic experienced the formation of a tropical storm with its center located over land on Tuesday evening, when Tropical Storm Julia emerged at 11 pm EDT, centered about five miles west of Jacksonville, Florida. Tropical cyclones derive their energy from the warm waters of the ocean, so it is very difficult—but not unheard of—for a storm to get its start while centered over land.
Jeff Masters • 4:22 PM GMT on September 14, 2016
Packing sustained winds of 185 mph, Super Typhoon Meranti--one of the deepest tropical cyclones on record anywhere on Earth--may graze southern Taiwan as it heads toward landfall on the southeast China coast. Meranti could produce significant damage in far south Taiwan and has the potential to be a catastrophic rain-maker in China. In the Atlantic, Tropical Storm Ian is churning harmlessly well out to sea, while a tropical wave is bringing heavy thunderstorms and gusty winds to Florida and Georgia.
Bob Henson and Jeff Masters • 4:45 PM GMT on September 13, 2016
Now packing top winds of 180 mph, Super Typhoon Meranti is headed for a potentially destructive encounter with southern Taiwan by midweek. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Ian has developed in the Atlantic and Hurricane Orlene in the East Pacific.
Bob Henson and Jeff Masters • 4:36 PM GMT on September 12, 2016
While the Atlantic is on the tepid side this weekend in terms of tropical cyclones, we have two potentially fearsome storms in the Pacific. Tropical Storm Orlene could attain Category 1 or 2 strength well southwest of Mexico before turning out to sea, while Typhoon Meranti is en route to a potential landfall in Taiwan by midweek, potentially as a Category 4 storm. In the Atlantic, two tropical waves show little signs of development, while a third has some potential for becoming a tropical storm
Bob Henson • 5:17 PM GMT on September 11, 2016
An area of low pressure (Invest 92L) with a well-defined surface circulation was located a few hundred miles west of the Florida Keys on Saturday morning. Satellite images and long range radar out of Key West show that 92L had well-defined surface circulation center, but the center was completely exposed to view, with almost no heavy thunderstorms—the telltale sign of a storm struggling with dry air and high wind shear.
Jeff Masters • 3:56 PM GMT on September 10, 2016
An area of low pressure (Invest 92L) with a well-defined surface circulation developed on Friday afternoon in the Florida Straits, just east of the Florida Keys. Satellite images and long range radar out of Key West show that 92L has well-defined surface circulation center, but almost no heavy thunderstorms. Surface winds measured by the ASCAT satellite instrument were as high as 35 mph at 10:28 am EDT Friday.
Jeff Masters and Bob Henson • 6:32 PM GMT on September 09, 2016
The broiling summer of 2016 placed fifth hottest among the 122 summers since records began in 1895 for the contiguous U.S., according to NOAA. The average daily low temperature was the warmest for any summer on record. Very dry conditions in the eastern and western U.S. bookended a wet corridor in the Mississippi Valley, where catastrophic flooding in Louisiana during August is now estimated to have cost $10-15 billion.
Bob Henson • 11:53 PM GMT on September 08, 2016
Former Hurricane Newton swept from Mexico’s Gulf of California into southeast Arizona as a remnant low pressure center early Wednesday afternoon. Newton dropped more than 4" of rain in parts of southeast AZ, and a moisture channel extending well ahead of Newton bolstered heavy rain and near-record values of atmospheric moisture over the Central Plains and Midwest.
Bob Henson and Jeff Masters • 4:12 PM GMT on September 08, 2016
Heavy rains have moved into Southeast Arizona as Tropical Storm Newton plows northwards at 18 mph. As of the 11 am EDT Wednesday advisory, Newton had top sustained winds of 50 mph and was located just 135 miles south of Tucson, Arizona. Newton made two landfalls in Mexico during the previous 24 hours.
Jeff Masters • 3:22 PM GMT on September 07, 2016
Hurricane Newton is battering Mexico’s Baja Peninsula after whipping into existence on Sunday and intensifying with frightening speed. Newton became a tropical depression on Sunday afternoon in the waters a few hundred miles south-southeast of the tip of Mexico’s Baja Peninsula, and rapidly grew into a hurricane in just 24 hours.
Jeff Masters • 4:30 PM GMT on September 06, 2016
Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine will brush Long Island and Cape Cod through Tuesday, bringing gusty winds and bursts of heavy rain. High surf and rip currents will affect beaches from New Jersey to Massachusetts. Meanwhile, a tropical wave may develop in the Caribbean this week, and a fast-strengthening Tropical Storm Newton is expected to bring moisture into the Southwest U.S. after a potential landfall at Baja California on Wednesday.
Jeff Masters and Bob Henson • 4:04 PM GMT on September 05, 2016
The storm now known as Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine continued to spin on Sunday morning about 300 miles off the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coast. Hermine may regain hurricane-force winds by Monday while slowly moving north. Hermine is expected to remain well offshore but could still produce dangerous storm surge. Tropical storm warnings are in effect from coastal areas from Virginia to Rhode Island.
Jeff Masters and Bob Henson • 4:49 PM GMT on September 04, 2016
Ex-Hurricane Hermine, now off the North Carolina coast and classified as a post-tropical cyclone, will take one of the oddest and most unsettling trajectories in memory for a named storm along the U.S. East Coast. As it spins for several days in the region east of the Mid-Atlantic and south of New England, life-threatening storm surge is possible along coastlines from Virginia to New York.
Bob Henson and Jeff Masters • 4:48 PM GMT on September 03, 2016
Hurricane Hermine hit the coast of Florida near St. Marks at approximately 1:30 am EDT Friday, September 2, 2016, as a Category 1 storm with sustained winds of 80 mph. Now a tropical storm, Hermine is dumping torrential rain across the Southeast coast. As it lingers off the Mid-Atlantic coast, Hermine could produce several days of high surf, coastal rain and wind, and the potential for significant storm surge.
Jeff Masters and Bob Henson • 4:35 PM GMT on September 02, 2016
Widespread storm surge was barreling into Florida’s northeast Gulf Coast late Thursday night with the approach of Hurricane Hermine. Widespread torrential rain will accompany Hermine as it moves through the coastal Southeast U.S. on Friday and off North Carolina on Saturday. The Labor Day weekend may be dampened by rain and wind along the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts, as Hermine is expected to slow or stall offshore.
Bob Henson and Jeff Masters • 4:14 AM GMT on September 02, 2016
A hurricane hunter aircraft confirmed on Thursday afternoon that Hurricane Hermine had formed in the Gulf of Mexico. With Hurricane Gaston also active in the Central Atlantic, we now have multiple hurricanes in the Atlantic for the first time since the first week of September 2012 Hermine will cross the coast late tonight or early Friday morning, making it Florida’s first hurricane strike in nearly eleven years, since Hurricane Wilma hit South Florida in October 2005.
Jeff Masters • 10:32 PM GMT on September 01, 2016
Tropical Storm Hermine is gathering strength as it steams north-northeastwards at 14 mph towards the Florida Panhandle, and appears poised to give Florida its first hurricane strike in nearly eleven years when it crosses the coast late tonight or early Friday morning. Hermine will drop very heavy rain along and near the Southeast U.S. Coast as it heads northeast, eventually transforming into a non-tropical low that could bring rain and wind to the mid-Atlantic coast over Labor Day weekend. In Hawaii, weakening Tropical Storm Madeline had little impact, but a new hurricane watch is in effect as Hurricane Lester approaches.
Jeff Masters and Bob Henson • 4:48 PM GMT on September 01, 2016
Tropical Storm Hermine is gathering strength as it steams north-northeastwards at 10 mph towards the Florida Panhandle, and appears poised to give Florida its first hurricane strike in nearly eleven years when it crosses the coast late tonight or early Friday morning. A NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft was in Hermine early Thursday morning, and found top surface winds of 65 mph to the east of the center, and a central pressure that had fallen to 992 mb.
Jeff Masters • 12:31 PM GMT on September 01, 2016