Back from vacation

Happy Thanksgiving, everyone! It's good to be back home after a relaxing visit to the Caribbean. I must admit, though, that scraping the inch of ice off of my windshield at the airport in Detroit last night in -5 wind chill temperatures was a shock, after wading in 82 degree waters in San Juan yesterday morning!

I did keep a watchful eye on the tropics while I was in Puerto Rico, because this hurricane season is not yet over. Water temperatures are still more than 80F (26.5 C) over a large portion of the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic, and wind shear levels are still forecast to remain low enough to support formation of a tropical storm Epsilon before the season mercifully ends. In addition to Tropical Storm Delta, there are two areas to watch over the next week:

1) A strong non-tropical low is expected to form by Sunday in the mid-Atlantic just west of Delta's current position, and drift slowly west or west-southwest. Like Delta did, this low could remain over warm water long enough to gradually acquire a warm core and morph into a tropical storm. It is unlikely that this storm would threaten any land areas except Bermuda, the Azores, or Canary Islands.

2) The region just north of Panama may get active, as wind shear levels are expected to be low the next five days. However, there is not much moisture in the region at present, and wind shear values are expected to greatly increase over the entire Caribbean by early December. I don't expect any serious storm will develop in the Caribbean over the next week, although a weak tropical storm is a slight possibility.

Tropical Storm Delta
Delta is still hanging tough in the face of 30-40 knots of wind shear, but its days are numbered. High shear, dry air, and cooler waters will all conspire to weaken Delta over the next two days, then destroy it by Monday. The deep convection around the eye is already starting to decay, and this storm has missed its chance to become a hurricane. The remnants of Delta have the potential to bring 40 mph winds and heavy rain to the Canary Islands and Morocco early next week.

I'll be back with an update on Sunday morning--or Saturday--if something develops worth talking about.

Jeff Masters