Carolinas need to watch out Tuesday

The low pressure system we've been watching the past week over the Bahamas moved inland over central Florida yesterday, and is not a threat to develop into a tropical storm today. However, thunderstorm activity has increased over the Bahamas and Gulf Stream to the east of Florida today, and the latest 8am EDT run of the GFDL model is predicting that a tropical storm will form off the Florida coast on Tuesday morning. This storm is forecast to move rapidly northward and hit near the South Carolina/North Carolina border on Tuesday afternoon. If this occurs, all of coastal North Carolina is in for some very heavy rains Tuesday night through Wednesday. Most of the development should be on the east side of the storm, so South Carolina will not get hit as hard. The other models are not as enthusiastic as the GFDL about such a storm developing, and it certainly doesn't have much time to get it's act together. I think a tropical depression is quite possible, however. Regardless, this low pressure system will bring heavy rain and gusty winds to the Southeast U.S. over the next two days. Depending on the low's track, the mid-Atlantic coast may also get a good soaking on Wednesday. The Hurricane Center has a Hurricane Hunter aircraft ready to investigate anything that might pop up Tuesday.


Figure 1. Preliminary model tracks for the low over Florida.

Disturbance east of the Windward Islands
A weak low pressure area near 7N 48W, about 1000 miles east-southeast of the southern Windward Islands, is tracking west-northwest at 15 mph. The heavy thunderstorm activity surrounding this low has mostly dissipated this afternoon. This low is moving west towards an area of higher wind shear, and is not expected to develop.


Figure 2. Preliminary model tracks for the low east of the Windward Islands.

I'll be back with up update on Tuesday.

Jeff Masters