WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™
Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.Category 1 Typhoon Hagupit Drenching the Philippines
Typhoon Hagupit was a weakened Category 1 typhoon with 85 mph winds and a 965 mb central pressure over the Central Philippines on Sunday morning, after making landfall in Dolores, Eastern Samar, at 9:15 pm local time on Saturday. At landfall, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center rated Hagupit a major Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds, and the Japan Meteorological Agency gave it a central pressure of 935 mb. On the island of Samar, Borongan received 15.55" (395 mm) of rain in just 24 hours, and Catbalogan got 14.18" (360 mm). Two deaths are being blamed on the typhoon so far, and it appears the islands avoided a major catastrophe.
Moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots and interaction with land will continue to slowly weaken Hagupit. Satellite loops show that the eye is no longer distinct and the cloud tops of the intense eyewall thunderstorms have warmed significantly, indicating weakening. Nevertheless, Hagupit is a very large and wet storm, and is still a very serious heavy rainfall threat. The storm's slow forward speed of 5 - 10 mph through the Philippines will insure that a large portion of the islands receive torrential rains of 10 - 15". Since Hagupit is likely to track very close to the capital city of Manila as a strong tropical storm or weak Category 1 typhoon, heavy rains of 10 - 15" could affect the southern portion of this city of 12 million. Hagupit's closest approach to Manila will come between 06 - 18 UTC on Monday.
Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Hagupit over the Central Philippines at 02:40 UTC on Sunday December 7, 2014. At the time, Hagupit was a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
Figure 2. Predicted precipitation from Typhoon Hagupit from the 06 UTC Sunday run of the GFDL hurricane model. Widespread areas of 8 - 16" (yellow colors), with some areas of 16+ inches were predicted. The capital of Manila was at the edge of the area expected to receive 8 - 16" of rain. Image credit: NOAA/GFDL.
Links
If you want to make a charitable donation to storm relief in the Philippines, consider a donation to DirectRelief. As discussed by Dr. Greg Laden in his blog, DirectRelief is a private humanitarian nonprofit organization based in Santa Barbara, California, with a mission to “improve the health and lives of people affected by poverty or emergency situations by mobilizing and providing essential medical resources needed for their care." They have three strategically pre-positioned typhoon modules with enough medicines and supplies supplies to treat 5,000 people for a month following the Hagupit disaster. DirectRelief's Hagupit web page is here.
Storm chaser James Reynolds is in the Philippines, and will be offering updates from Western Samar via his Twitter feed.
Latest storm news from Philippine news site rappler.com.
Storm surge expert Hal Needham has a blog post on the history of storm surges in the Philippines: The Philippines Has a History of Catastrophic, Fast-Moving Storm Surges.
Matching donation challenge: Portlight's "Giving Tuesday and Beyond" campaign
The Portlight.org disaster relief charity, founded and staffed by members of the wunderground community, has launched a month-long fundraising campaign called "Giving Tuesday and Beyond". They aim to raise $20,000 this month. I challenge the wunderground community to show their generosity this giving season: for each dollar donated between now and Monday, I pledge to make a matching donation. Here’s a sampling of what the money will go towards in 2015:
- Holding more Getting It Right conferences, starting in Hampton Roads, Virginia, in late February.
- Launching a traveling photo exhibit – “Disastrous: Left Behind” – in the lobby of FEMA’s headquarters in late January, with many more venues to follow around the country.
- Celebrating the 25th anniversary of the ADA on July 26th, 2015.
- Continuing to streamline their disaster response process in order to immediately respond better, faster, and smarter.
Portlight Strategies’ mission is to provide disaster services to the disability community, and to foster inclusive disaster planning and response for people with all types of disabilities. You can donate at the "Giving Tuesday and Beyond" campaign page. As always, you can visit the Portlight Blog or Portlight website to stay current on their latest efforts.
Video 1. ISS Flyover of Typhoon Hagupit at (4x speed) on December 6, 2014. Thanks go to wunderground member barbamz for posting this link in my blog comments.
Jeff Masters
Moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots and interaction with land will continue to slowly weaken Hagupit. Satellite loops show that the eye is no longer distinct and the cloud tops of the intense eyewall thunderstorms have warmed significantly, indicating weakening. Nevertheless, Hagupit is a very large and wet storm, and is still a very serious heavy rainfall threat. The storm's slow forward speed of 5 - 10 mph through the Philippines will insure that a large portion of the islands receive torrential rains of 10 - 15". Since Hagupit is likely to track very close to the capital city of Manila as a strong tropical storm or weak Category 1 typhoon, heavy rains of 10 - 15" could affect the southern portion of this city of 12 million. Hagupit's closest approach to Manila will come between 06 - 18 UTC on Monday.
Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Hagupit over the Central Philippines at 02:40 UTC on Sunday December 7, 2014. At the time, Hagupit was a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
Figure 2. Predicted precipitation from Typhoon Hagupit from the 06 UTC Sunday run of the GFDL hurricane model. Widespread areas of 8 - 16" (yellow colors), with some areas of 16+ inches were predicted. The capital of Manila was at the edge of the area expected to receive 8 - 16" of rain. Image credit: NOAA/GFDL.
Links
If you want to make a charitable donation to storm relief in the Philippines, consider a donation to DirectRelief. As discussed by Dr. Greg Laden in his blog, DirectRelief is a private humanitarian nonprofit organization based in Santa Barbara, California, with a mission to “improve the health and lives of people affected by poverty or emergency situations by mobilizing and providing essential medical resources needed for their care." They have three strategically pre-positioned typhoon modules with enough medicines and supplies supplies to treat 5,000 people for a month following the Hagupit disaster. DirectRelief's Hagupit web page is here.
Storm chaser James Reynolds is in the Philippines, and will be offering updates from Western Samar via his Twitter feed.
Latest storm news from Philippine news site rappler.com.
Storm surge expert Hal Needham has a blog post on the history of storm surges in the Philippines: The Philippines Has a History of Catastrophic, Fast-Moving Storm Surges.
Matching donation challenge: Portlight's "Giving Tuesday and Beyond" campaign
The Portlight.org disaster relief charity, founded and staffed by members of the wunderground community, has launched a month-long fundraising campaign called "Giving Tuesday and Beyond". They aim to raise $20,000 this month. I challenge the wunderground community to show their generosity this giving season: for each dollar donated between now and Monday, I pledge to make a matching donation. Here’s a sampling of what the money will go towards in 2015:
- Holding more Getting It Right conferences, starting in Hampton Roads, Virginia, in late February.
- Launching a traveling photo exhibit – “Disastrous: Left Behind” – in the lobby of FEMA’s headquarters in late January, with many more venues to follow around the country.
- Celebrating the 25th anniversary of the ADA on July 26th, 2015.
- Continuing to streamline their disaster response process in order to immediately respond better, faster, and smarter.
Portlight Strategies’ mission is to provide disaster services to the disability community, and to foster inclusive disaster planning and response for people with all types of disabilities. You can donate at the "Giving Tuesday and Beyond" campaign page. As always, you can visit the Portlight Blog or Portlight website to stay current on their latest efforts.
Video 1. ISS Flyover of Typhoon Hagupit at (4x speed) on December 6, 2014. Thanks go to wunderground member barbamz for posting this link in my blog comments.
Jeff Masters
The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.