WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™
Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.Category 2 Hurricane Blanca Headed Towards Baja Mexico
Hurricane Blanca off the Pacific coast of Mexico has changed little since Thursday morning, when the storm weakened significantly from Category 4 strength to a Category 2 storm with 100 mph winds, thanks to cooler waters from the depths that were churned up by the hurricane's powerful winds. The eyewall completely collapsed on Thursday, and satellite loops show that Blanca is struggling to rebuild a new eyewall in the face of wind shear that has risen to the moderate level, 10 - 20 knots. Late Friday morning, infrared satellite images showed that the intensity and areal coverage of Blanca's heavy thunderstorms had increased markedly, though, and it is likely that the Air Force Hurricane Hunters will find an intensifying hurricane when they investigate the storm on Friday afternoon. Blanca will be over warm waters until Saturday afternoon, when it will hit cooler waters and a drier surrounding air mass. These conditions should lead to gradual weakening, and Blanca should be below hurricane strength when it makes landfall in Mexico's Baja Peninsula on Sunday night or Monday. Blanca will pose a heavy rainfall threat to Mexico's Baja Peninsula beginning on Sunday. Moisture from Blanca will flow into Arizona and New Mexico beginning on Tuesday, bringing localized rains of up to one inch.
Figure 1. Category 2 Hurricane Blanca (right) and a dissipating Tropical Storm Andres (left) as seen by the VIIRS instrument on the Suomi spacecraft on June 4, 2015. Moisture from Andres can be seen flowing across the Mexico's Baja Peninsula into Arizona. Image credit: NASA Worldview.
Figure 2. Predicted total precipitation from the 06Z Friday June 5, 2015 run of the GFDL model. Some areas of 4 - 8" were predicted for the southern Baja Peninsula and Mainland Mexico south of the Arizona border. Image credit: NOAA/GFDL.
The last hurricane in Baja: destructive Hurricane Odile of 2014
While Blanca's rains may cause some flooding problems on Mexico's Baja Peninsula, Blanca's impact on Baja will be nothing like last year's Hurricane Odile, which roared ashore near Cabo San Lucas as a Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds on September 25. Odile was the strongest storm on record to hit Baja, and killed eleven and did $1.22 billion in damage, making it the 6th most expensive Northeast Pacific hurricane ever. The name "Odile" was retired from the list of Northeast Pacific hurricanes, and will be replaced by "Odalys", which will appear on the list of names for the 2020 season. Odile is one of only thirteen hurricanes in the Northeast Pacific to get its name retired since naming began in 1960.
Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Odile approaching the tip of Mexico's Baja Peninsula, taken at approximately 4:30 pm EDT Sunday September 14, 2014. At the time, Odile was a Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
Remnants of Andres bringing rain to Arizona
Hurricane Andres dissipated over the cool waters off the Baja coast of Mexico on Thursday, but moisture from the storm's remnants has sloshed into the Southwest, bringing Phoenix, Arizona its first measurable rain ever recorded on June 5th. A thunderstorm around 7 am local time Friday brought 0.02" to the city. Weather records in Phoenix go back to 1896. Early June is usually a dry time in Central Arizona, since the cold fronts of spring do not push that far south, and the summer monsoon season usually holds off until early July. That's when summer heat builds to the point where the deserts create enough rising hot air to suck in moist air from the ocean areas to the south to replace the rising air, bringing spectacular thunderstorms.
New Northeast Pacific disturbance may develop near Mexican coast
The GFS and European models are predicting the formation of an area of low pressure area early next week a few hundred miles south or south-southeast of Mexico's Gulf of Tehuantepec. The 00Z Friday run of the European model predicted that this disturbance would develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday and begin bringing heavy rains to the coast of Mexico just west of Guatemala on Wednesday and Thursday. The Friday morning runs of the GFS model did not show the disturbance developing. In their 2 pm EDT Friday tropical weather outlook, NHC gave 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 0% and 30%, respectively.
Links
Live streaming camera on the very southern tip of Baja California.
Another camera is just east of this one, on the Bay (Bahia) of San Lucas at Sunset Da Monalisa.
Jeff Masters
Figure 1. Category 2 Hurricane Blanca (right) and a dissipating Tropical Storm Andres (left) as seen by the VIIRS instrument on the Suomi spacecraft on June 4, 2015. Moisture from Andres can be seen flowing across the Mexico's Baja Peninsula into Arizona. Image credit: NASA Worldview.
Figure 2. Predicted total precipitation from the 06Z Friday June 5, 2015 run of the GFDL model. Some areas of 4 - 8" were predicted for the southern Baja Peninsula and Mainland Mexico south of the Arizona border. Image credit: NOAA/GFDL.
The last hurricane in Baja: destructive Hurricane Odile of 2014
While Blanca's rains may cause some flooding problems on Mexico's Baja Peninsula, Blanca's impact on Baja will be nothing like last year's Hurricane Odile, which roared ashore near Cabo San Lucas as a Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds on September 25. Odile was the strongest storm on record to hit Baja, and killed eleven and did $1.22 billion in damage, making it the 6th most expensive Northeast Pacific hurricane ever. The name "Odile" was retired from the list of Northeast Pacific hurricanes, and will be replaced by "Odalys", which will appear on the list of names for the 2020 season. Odile is one of only thirteen hurricanes in the Northeast Pacific to get its name retired since naming began in 1960.
Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Odile approaching the tip of Mexico's Baja Peninsula, taken at approximately 4:30 pm EDT Sunday September 14, 2014. At the time, Odile was a Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
Remnants of Andres bringing rain to Arizona
Hurricane Andres dissipated over the cool waters off the Baja coast of Mexico on Thursday, but moisture from the storm's remnants has sloshed into the Southwest, bringing Phoenix, Arizona its first measurable rain ever recorded on June 5th. A thunderstorm around 7 am local time Friday brought 0.02" to the city. Weather records in Phoenix go back to 1896. Early June is usually a dry time in Central Arizona, since the cold fronts of spring do not push that far south, and the summer monsoon season usually holds off until early July. That's when summer heat builds to the point where the deserts create enough rising hot air to suck in moist air from the ocean areas to the south to replace the rising air, bringing spectacular thunderstorms.
New Northeast Pacific disturbance may develop near Mexican coast
The GFS and European models are predicting the formation of an area of low pressure area early next week a few hundred miles south or south-southeast of Mexico's Gulf of Tehuantepec. The 00Z Friday run of the European model predicted that this disturbance would develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday and begin bringing heavy rains to the coast of Mexico just west of Guatemala on Wednesday and Thursday. The Friday morning runs of the GFS model did not show the disturbance developing. In their 2 pm EDT Friday tropical weather outlook, NHC gave 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 0% and 30%, respectively.
Links
Live streaming camera on the very southern tip of Baja California.
Another camera is just east of this one, on the Bay (Bahia) of San Lucas at Sunset Da Monalisa.
Jeff Masters
The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.