Chris is stronger

The Hurricane Hunters found much stronger winds than expected in Chris this afternoon. The 2:50 pm EDT eye report indicated a central pressure of 1007 mb, down 2 mb from the most recent advisory. Most surprising were the winds in the southeast quadrant, which were in the 55-60 mph range. Radar out of Guadeloupe shows this intense band thunderstorms rather nicely. The northern side of Chris is still devoid of thunderstorms due to the dry air and wind shear. The storm's appearance on satellite imagery is improved from this morning, and shows the beginnings of a Central Dense Overcast (CDO) feature typical of strong tropical storms. Wind shear has dropped another 5 knots this afternoon, down to 10-20 knots, so some continued strengthening is possible. The latest set of model runs are quite divergent on what Chris might do, and I think we really need to wait until the next set of model runs is in before we can rely on the computer models. Unfortunately, tonight's flight of the NOAA jet was cancelled, so we'll have to wait until Wednesday night for the jet to fly. Most of the computer models are still dissipating Chris by five days from now.

I'll be back with an update in the morning with the latest.

Jeff Masters