Earth on Pace For Its Warmest Year on Record After a 5th Warmest November

November 2016 was Earth's fifth warmest November since record keeping began in 1880, said NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) on Monday. November 2016 was 0.73°C (1.31°F) warmer than the 20th-century November average, but 0.23°C (0.41°F) cooler than the record warmth of 2015. NASA reported that November 2016 was the second warmest November in its database, behind November 2015. The difference between the two data sets is, in large part, due to how they handle the data-sparse areas in the Arctic, which was record warm in November. NOAA does not include most of the Arctic in their global analysis, while NASA does.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average by region for November 2016, the fifth warmest November for the globe since record keeping began in 1880. Record warmth was observed across parts of central and southeastern Canada, some areas across the far northern tier of the United States along with a portion of the southwest U.S., parts of western and southern Mexico, sections of eastern and west central Africa, a few parts of northern South America, and regions of some southeastern Asia island nations. Cooler-than-average conditions were observed across much of the central Eurasian continent, with monthly temperatures at least 5°C (9°F) below average in central Russia and parts of northeastern Asia. In South America, central Bolivia experienced record cold temperatures during November. Image credit: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI).

A weak La Niña event is now underway in the Eastern Pacific, and the cool waters present there have helped cool the planet slightly below the record warm levels observed during the strong El Niño event that ended in May 2016. The fact that November 2016 was still the 2nd to 5th warmest November on record despite the presence of La Niña can mostly be attributed to the steady build-up of heat-trapping greenhouse gases due to human activities. NOAA’s global surface temperature for the year so far (January-November 2016) is an impressive 0.94°C (1.69°F) above the 20th-century average and 0.07°C (0.13°F) warmer than the previous January-to-November record, set in 2015. Remarkably, no continental land areas were cooler than average for the year-to-date. It is almost certain that 2016 will end up as the warmest year on record for the planet, giving Earth three consecutive warmest years on record.

Ocean-only, land-only, and lower atmosphere temperatures in November
Ocean-only temperatures this November were the second warmest on record, while land-only temperatures were the 12th warmest on record. (Since most of Earth’s surface is covered by ocean, the land-plus-ocean reading is dominated by the ocean-only temperatures, thus keeping November 2016 so warm globally.) For the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere, global satellite-measured temperatures in November 2016 and for the Jan - Nov year-to-date period were the warmest in the 38-year record, according to the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH). For the stratosphere, the year-to-date temperatures were the coldest on record. Stratospheric cooling is a classic symptom of an increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere—the upper atmosphere must cool to compensate for warming near the surface.


Figure 2. Departure from the 20th-century average for the global January-through-November temperature for the years 1880 - 2016. This year has seen by far the warmest temperatures on record for the year-to-date period. Image credit: NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI).

Arctic sea ice hits its lowest November extent on record
November 2016 Arctic sea ice extent was the lowest in the 38-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). The record low was due to unusually high air temperatures, winds from the south, and a warm ocean. For a brief period in the middle the month, total extent actually decreased by 50,000 square kilometers (9,300 square miles.) The only other November retreat of Arctic sea ice in the 38-year satellite record was a less pronounced and brief retreat of 14,000 square kilometers (5,400 square miles) that occurred in 2013. Seven of the eleven months of 2016 have seen record-low Arctic sea ice, and the annual sea ice minimum in September was the second lowest on record.

Sea ice around Antarctic was also extraordinarily low in November--more than 1 million sq km below the previous monthly record, from 1986. The monthly value was 5.7 standard deviations below the long-term average, a mammoth departure and more than twice as large as the previous record. Sea-ice formation processes are largely decoupled between the Arctic and Antarctic, so there is no obvious direct link between the record-low values at the two poles in November.


Figure 3. Daily mean temperatures by Julian day through December 18, 2016 over the Arctic north of 80°N, as compiled by the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI). Temperatures for this year (red line) are compared to the long-term averages (green line.) Temperatures in October, November, and the first half of December were 5 - 20°C (8 - 36°F) above average. This is by far the warmest multi-month anomaly measured since DMI began tracking Arctic temperatures in 1956. According to the 2016 Arctic Report Card, issued last week, the average surface air temperature of the Arctic for the year ending September 2016 was by far the highest since 1900, and new monthly record highs were recorded in January, February, October and November 2016.

No billion-dollar weather disasters in November 2016
According to the November 2016 Catastrophe Report from insurance broker Aon Benfield, no billion-dollar weather-related disasters hit the planet in November. However, one event from October—Super Typhoon Chaba in South Korea and Japan—accumulated enough damage claims to be rated a billion-dollar disaster by the end of November. From January through November 2016, there were 30 billion-dollar weather disasters globally. This is the fourth greatest number of such disasters in any year since 1990. Only 2013 (41), 2010 (40), and 2011 (35) had more. For the U.S., Aon Benfield counted thirteen billion-dollar weather disasters during January - November 2016, which is the second highest number of such disasters on record since 1980 (the record: sixteen in 2011.)

Here is Aon Benfield’s tally of billion-dollar weather disasters globally for January - November 2016:

1) Flooding, Yangtze Basin, China, 5/1 - 8/1, $28.0 billion, 475 killed
2) Hurricane Matthew, Caribbean, Bahamas, U.S., 9/28 - 10/10, $15.5 billion, 603+ killed
3) Flooding, Louisiana U.S., 8/9 - 8/16, $10 - $15 Billion, 13 killed
4) Drought, China, 6/1 - 8/31, $6 billion, 0 killed
5) Flooding, Germany, France, Austria, Poland, 5/26 - 6/6, $5.5 billion, 17 killed
6) Drought, India, 1/1 - 6/30, $5.0 billion, 0 killed
7) Flooding, Northeast China 7/16 - 7/24, $4.7 billion, 289 killed
8) Wildfire, Fort McMurray, Canada, 5/2- 6/1, $4.5 billion, 0 killed
9) Severe Weather, Plains-Southeast U.S., 4/10 - 4/13, $4.3 billion, 1 killed
10) Drought, Thailand, 1/1 - 6/30, $3.3 billion, 0 killed
11) Severe Weather, Rockies-Plains-Southeast-Midwest U.S., 3/22 - 3/25, $2.5 billion, 0 killed
12) Super Typhoon Meranti, China, Taiwan, Philippines, 9/13 - 9/16, $2.5 billion, 44 killed
13) Flooding, China, 6/18 - 6/23, $2.3 billion, 68 killed
14) Flooding, Texas U.S., 4/15 - 4/19, $2.0 billion, 9 killed
15) Winter Weather, East Asia, 1/20 - 1/26, $2.0 billion, 116 killed
16) Severe Weather, Plains-Midwest U.S., 4/29 - 5/3, $1.8 billion, 6 killed
17) Tropical Cyclone Roanu, Sri Lanka, India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, China, 5/14 - 5/21, $1.8 billion, 135 killed
18) Severe Weather, Plains-Rockies U.S., 7/28 - 7/29, $1.6 billion, 0 killed
19) Drought, Zimbabwe, 6/1 - 8/10, $1.6 billion, 0 killed
20) Flooding and Severe Weather, Plains-Midwest-Southeast-Northeast U.S., 3/4 - 3/12, $1.5 billion, 6 killed
21) Super Typhoon Nepartak, Philippines, Taiwan, China, 7/8 - 7/12, $1.4 billion, 111 killed
22) Severe Weather, Plains-Southeast U.S., 3/17 - 3/18, $1.4 billion, 0 killed
23) Tropical Cyclone Winston, Fiji, 2/16 - 2/22, $1.4 billion, 44 killed
24) Flooding, Argentina and Uruguay, 4/4 - 4/10, $1.3 billion, 0 killed
25) Severe Weather, Plains-Midwest U.S., 5/21 - 5/28, $1.3 billion, 1 killed
26) Severe Weather, Plains-Midwest-Southeast-Northeast U.S., 2/22 - 2/25, $1.2 billion, 10 killed
27) Severe Weather, Netherlands, 6/23 - 6/24, $1.1 billion, 0 killed
28) Severe Weather, Plains-Midwest-Mississippi Valley U.S., 5/7 - 5/10, $1.0 billion, 2 killed
29) Winter Weather, Eastern U.S., 1/21 - 1/24, $1.0 billion, 58 killed
30) Super Typhoon Chaba, South Korea, Japan, 10/5 - 10/6, $1.0 billion, 10 killed

And here is the one new billion-dollar disaster from the November 2016 Aon Benfield report in more detail:


Disaster 1. Category 5 Super Typhoon Chaba peaked at 165 mph winds south of Okinawa, Japan on October 3 before weakening to a Category 1 storm as it grazed South Korea on October 5. Southern South Korea was the hardest-hit with ten killed and the large majority of the $1 billion in damage from the storm. In this image, we see an International Space Station view of the typhoon taken at 08 UTC October 3, 2016 when the storm was at peak intensity: a 905 mb central pressure and sustained winds of 165 mph.

Notable global heat and cold marks set in November 2016
Hottest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: 41.6°C (106.9°F) at Matam, Senegal, 8 and 24 November
Coldest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: -57.0°C (-70.6°F) at Summit, Greenland, 24 November
Hottest temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: 46.3°C (115.3°F) at West Roebuck, Australia, 5 November
Coldest temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: -60.6°C (-77.1°F) at Concordia, Antarctica, 1 November
(Courtesy of Maximiliano Herrera.)

Major weather stations that set (not tied) new all-time heat or cold records in November 2016 (Courtesy of Maximiliano Herrera)
Combarbala (Chile) max. 37.3°C, 3 November
San Lorenzo (Chile) max. 39.7°C, 3 November
Lay Lay (Chile) max. 40.5°C, 17 November
Esperantina (Brazil) max. 41.8°C, 25 November
Ambon (Indonesia) max. 36.2°C, 29 November
San Fernando (Chile) max. 36.4°C, 29 November
Twee Rivieren (South Africa) max. 45.6°C, 30 November

One all-time national heat record set or tied in November 2016
One nation or territory—The Comoros—set an all-time heat record in November 2016. From January through November 30, 2016, a total of 22 nations or territories tied or set all-time records for their hottest temperature in recorded history. This breaks the record of eighteen all-time heat records in 2010 for the greatest number of such records set in one year. Also, one all-time cold temperature record has been set so far in 2016 (in Hong Kong.) "All-time" record here refers to the warmest or coldest temperature ever reliably reported in a nation or territory. The period of record varies from country to country and station to station, but it is typically a few decades to a century or more. Most nations do not maintain official databases of extreme temperature records, so the national temperature records reported here are in many cases not official. Our data source is international weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, one of the world's top climatologists, who maintains a comprehensive list of extreme temperature records for every nation in the world on his website. If you reproduce this list of extremes, please cite Maximiliano Herrera as the primary source of the weather records. Here are 2016's all-time heat and cold records as of December 1:

The Comoros: November 13, 2016, 35.6°C (96.1°F) at Hahaya Airport (tie.)
French Guiana : September 27, 2016, 38.0°C (100.3°F) at Saint Laurent du Moroni.
The Marshall Islands: August 24, 2016, 35.6°C (96.1°F) at Utirik Atoll.
The Cayman Islands (United Kingdom territory) : August 21, 2016, 34.9°C (94.8°F) at Owen International Airport (tie.)
The British Virgin Islands [United Kingdom territory]: July 22, 2016, 35.0°C (95.0°F] at Terrance B. Lettsome International Airport.
Iraq: July 22, 2016, 53.9°C (129.0°F) at Basrah.
Iran: July 22, 2016, 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Delhoran (tie.)
Kuwait : July 21, 2016, when the mercury hit 54.0°C (129.2°F) at Mitribah.
Guernsey (United Kingdom territory): July 19, 2016, 35.0°C (95°F) at the small island of Alderney (tie.)
Hong Kong Territory (China): July 9, 2016, 37.9°C (100.2°F) at Happy Valley (tie.)
Niger: June 8, 2016, 49.0°C (120.2°F) at Bilma.
Palau: June 8, 2016, 34.4°C (93.9°F) at Koror AWS (tie.)
India : May 19, 2016, 51.0°C (123.8°F) at Phalodi.
Maldives: April 30, 2016, 35.0°C (95.0°F) at Hanimaadhoo.
Thailand: April 28, 2016, 44.6°C (112.3°F) at Mae Hong Son.
Cambodia: April 15, 2016, 42.6°C (108.7°F) at Preah Vihea.
Burkina Faso: April 13, 2016, 47.5°C (117.5°F) at Dori.
Laos : April 12, 2016, 42.3°C (108.1°F) at Seno.
Vanuatu in the South Pacific: February 8, 2016, 36.2°C (97.2°F) at Lamap Malekula.
Tonga: February 1, 2016, 35.5°C (95.9°F) at Niuafoou.
Wallis and Futuna Territory (France): January 10, 35.8°C (96.4°F) at Futuna Airport.
Botswana: January 7, 2016, 43.8°C (110.8°F) at Maun.

Hong Kong Territory (China) set its all-time coldest mark on January 24, 2016, -6.0°C (21.2°F) at Tai Mo Shan (elevation 950 meters.) Tai Mo Shan has a period of record going back to 1996; the coldest temperature near sea level since record keeping began at the Hong Kong Observatory in 1884 was 0°C (32°F) on January 18, 1893.

Jeff Masters