By:
Dr. Jeff Masters,
1:42 PM GMT on July 12, 2013
The remains of Tropical Storm Chantal are bringing heavy rains and gusty winds to the Northwest Bahama Islands today, as the storm slides northwards at 10 mph. However, the storm is poorly organized with only a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, and today's hurricane hunter mission into ex-Chantal has been cancelled. Before it dissipated on Wednesday, Chantal brought heavy rains to Haiti and the Dominican Republic, with
satellite estimates of 4 - 8 inches of rainfall in Central Haiti and the central and south coastal Dominican Republic. One drowning death in the Dominican Republic is being blamed on the storm.
Figure 1. Satellite image of Chantal's remains over the Bahamas, taken at 9 am EDT Friday, July 12, 2013. Note also the clouds at the upper left of the image, associated with a stalled-out cold front over coastal South Carolina. Image credit:
NASA/GSFC.Forecast for Chantal's remainsThe remains of Chantal will spread northwards into the offshore waters of South Carolina and North Carolina on Saturday and Sunday, and will contribute moisture to a stalled front expected to bring 2 - 3" of rain to the coast. Moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots is expected to affect the storm through Saturday, so some re-organization is possible. However, given its current disorganized state, it is unlikely that ex-Chantal will become a tropical depression or tropical storm again. In their 8 am EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave Chantal's remains a 10% chance of development into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Sunday. None of the reliable computer models are predicting development of Chantal's remains, or of anything else in the Atlantic over the next seven days.
Figure 2. Radar image of Typhoon Soulik approaching Taiwan, taken at 9 pm local time on July 12, 2013. Image credit:
Central Weather Bureau, Taiwan.Typhoon Soulik closes in on TaiwanHeavy rains are lashing Taiwan as
Typhoon Soulik, a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds in the Western Pacific, approaches landfall. At 9 pm local time on Friday,
Ishigakijima, Japan, on an island in the northern eyewall of Soulik, recorded sustained 10-minute winds of 80 mph. Soulik is expected to hit the northern end of Taiwan on Friday near 8 pm EDT as a Category 2 storm. Soulik will then make landfall in China near Fuzhou on Saturday at around 6 am EDT, most likely as a Category 1 typhoon. Soulik became the most powerful tropical cyclone of 2013 on Wednesday, when it peaked at Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds.
Taiwan's typhoon historyTaiwan was hit by two typhoons in 2012,
Typhoon Tembin (eight killed, $8 million in damage) and
Typhoon Saola (six killed, $27 million in damage.) Almost 70 inches fell in some areas of Taiwan, ranking Saola within the top five wettest cyclones to ever hit the island. According to
EMDAT, the most expensive typhoon in Taiwan's history was 2009's
Typhoon Morakot ($2.3 billion in damage.) The Category 1 storm dumped the most rain by a typhoon ever recorded in Taiwan, up to 2,777 mm (109.3".) The devastating flooding that resulted killed 630 people, making it the 4th deadliest typhoon in Taiwanese history. The deadliest typhoon in Taiwan's history was Category 3 Typhoon Ellen of 1959, which dumped 25 inches (640 mm) of rain in one day (August 7) on the mountains and western plains, triggering catastrophic flooding that killed 1046 people.