WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™
Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.Major Threat to Mexico from Category 4 Patricia
Turbo-charged Hurricane Patricia is on track to deliver a devastating one-two punch: landfall as a major hurricane on Mexico's Pacific coast, followed by the storm feeding an extreme rainfall event in parts of Texas. Drawing on near record-warm sea-surface temperatures of 30.5°C or 87°F (1-2°C above average), Patricia is also taking advantage of very light wind shear (5 - 10 knots) and rich atmospheric moisture (greater than 70% relative humidity). Within a span of just 27 hours, from 15Z Thursday to 18Z Friday, Patricia metamorphosed from a minimal tropical storm (top sustained winds of 40 mph) to a Category 4 hurricane (130 mph). This puts Patricia among the top rapid intensifiers in the modern record of hurricane monitoring. Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR) data collected from aboard a NOAA Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance flight confirmed a peak wind of 114 knots (131 mph) on Thursday afternoon near 1:30 pm EDT.
Figure 1. latest visible satellite image for Hurricane Patricia.
Figure 2. Infrared satellite image of Hurricane Patricia taken at 1:45 pm EDT Thursday, October 22, 2015. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.
There is no sign of any letup in Patricia’s intensification. A pinhole eye was becoming evident in visible and infrared satellite imagery at midday Thursday (see Figures 1 and 2). Ominously, the rapid intensification index from the SHIPS model on Thursday morning showed a 95 percent chance of Patricia strengthening by another 45 mph over the 24 hours (Patricia’s intensity at that point was estimated at 100 mph). At 2 pm EDT Thursday, the National Hurricane Center projected that Patricia would peak at 150 mph winds by Friday morning--just 10 mph below Category 5 strength--and would strike the Mexican coast as a Category 4 storm. Update: At 8 pm EDT Thursday, Patricia's top sustained winds were already up to 150 mph. Satellite loops suggest that Patricia could be upgraded to Category 5 strength by Friday morning, if not Thursday night.
The track forecast for Patricia
After roughly paralleling the Mexican coast on Thursday, Patricia is expected to make a rapid turn toward the north, bringing it onshore between Puerto Vallarta and Manzanillo on Friday night. Models have edged westward slightly, which reduces the threat of a direct strike on Manzanillo but increases the chance that Puerto Vallarta will experience impacts. On its currently forecast track, Patricia would pass east of Puerto Vallarta after several hours over land, but only a slight westward bend could results in a more direct strike on Puerto Vallarta. Hurricane warnings are in effect from Cabo Corrientes to Punta San Telmo, with a hurricane watch extending east to Lazaro Cardenas. A hurricane watch and tropical storm warning extend west from the warning area to San Blas, including Puerto Vallarta.
Figure 3. Major hurricanes (Category 3, 4, and 5) that have passed within 200 miles of Patricia’s location (15.0°N, 104.0°W as of 2 PM EDT Thursday, October 22, 2005).
Few of the Northeast Pacific’s major hurricanes strike the Mexican coast
Although the Northeast Pacific can be a highly active region for hurricanes, relatively few of these make landfall on the Mexican coast, thanks largely to the coastline’s northwest-to-southeast orientation. Most hurricanes that develop off Mexico’s Pacific coast track west or west-northwest, eventually decaying well out to sea (see Figure 3). However, the exceptions can be devastating. Landfalling hurricanes in this area are most common toward the end of the season, as upper-level westerlies begin to penetrate far enough south to force low-latitude storms to recurve. The last major hurricane to make landfall in the Mexican states under threat from Patricia--Nayarit, Jalisco, and Colima--was Category 4 Hurricane Kenna in late October 2002. Causing at least four deaths and inflicting around $100 million US in damage, Kenna struck with winds of 140 mph, which made it the second-strongest Pacific storm to strike Mexico in modern records. The strongest was an unnamed 1959 hurricane that struck near Manzanillo, also in late October. This catastrophic storm is the only Category 5 hurricane to strike Mexico’s Pacific coast, with estimated peak winds of near 160 mph (but the storm will likely be downgraded to Category 4 status based on a reanalysis now under review.) Damage was $280 million US, which would equate to more than $2 billion in current dollars. Some 1800 deaths were attributed to the storm, making it the deadliest Northeast Pacific hurricane on record.
Figure 4. Predicted rainfall for Hurricane Patricia from the 2 am EDT (06 UTC) Thursday, October 22, 2015 run of the HWRF model. Patricia is predicted to dump widespread rains of 8 - 16" along the coast, and bring a swath of 2 - 4" of rain all the way to South Texas. Image credit: NOAA.
Torrential rains aiming for Texas
Patricia will compound an ongoing heavy rain episode in Texas being driven by the approach of a strong upper-level low. Rich Gulf moisture is pooling along a surface front associated with the upper low. A cluster of heavy storms covered most of western Oklahoma at midday, extending into the west half of North Texas. This slow-moving area is expected to stall tonight and Friday over northern Texas, producing a stripe of rainfall that could total 6” - 8”. The Dallas-Fort Worth area could end up within this belt of heaviest rain. Round Two arrives with the injection of moisture ahead of Hurricane Patricia, whose remnants will be sweeping across Mexico toward Texas this weekend.
Figure 5. 3-day precipitation forecast for the period 0Z Friday, October 23 (7:00 pm EDT Thursday) through 0Z Monday. Image credit: NOAA/NWS Weather Prediction Center.
Figure 6. Latest drought status across Texas as of Tuesday, October 20, as released in the U.S. Drought Monitor on October 22. We can expect much of this red to disappear by next week! Image credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.
Conditions are aligning for a predecessor rain event (PRE) across the heart of Texas as Patricia approaches this weekend. In such events, tropical moisture well out ahead of a landfalling tropical cyclone interacts with a surface front and upper-level trough to produce heavy rainfall, often with significant inland flooding. By Saturday and Sunday, Patricia’s remnants will be moving across southern Texas, exacerbating rainfall there. Multi-day totals for the whole event will depend on where each of the various elements ends up being focused, but central Texas from Dallas to Austin appears to be most at risk for totals that could locally exceed a foot. It’s been a year of rainfall extremity for Texas: May was by far the wettest month in state history, quenching severe drought conditions, while dryness in late summer and early fall put much of the state back into drought (see Figure 6).
Tropical cyclones from the Northeast Pacific are notorious autumn rainmakers in Texas and Oklahoma. In late October 1983, Hurricane Tico caused hundreds of millions in US damage and led to rainfall totals exceeding a foot across parts of northern Texas and southern Oklahoma.
Figure 7. Latest satellite image of Hurricane Olaf.
Two other major hurricanes in the Pacific: Olaf and Champi
Though it’s weakened notably in the last 24 hours, Hurricane Olaf remained a Category 3 storm as of the 11 am EDT Thursday advisory from NHC. Olaf’s recurving path toward the north-northwest will be taking it into increasing shear and over gradually cooler waters over the next several days, leading to a gradual decline. However, Olaf is still projected to be a tropical cyclone on Tuesday morning, October 27, and its remnants will be sweeping toward the U.S. West Coast by midweek. Computer models still differ on Olaf’s evolution at that point, but at minimum, we can expect some of its moisture and energy to be folded into a Pacific Northwest storm, and some associated rainfall as far south as California can’t be ruled out yet.
Figure 8. Latest satellite image of Typhoon Champi.
In the Northwest Pacific, Typhoon Champi continues to rage, with top sustained winds of 115 mph as of the most recent advisory. Champi has become an annular typhoon, with a gigantic eye estimated at 70 miles in diameter (see this Capital Weather Gang feature). Champi will accelerate to the northeast over the next several days, likely maintaining tropical storm intensity through at least Sunday before it gets swept into a powerful, non-tropical storm system in the North Pacific.
Wunderblogger Steve Gregory has an update in his Thursday afternoon post, Heavy Rain in Texas as Progressive Pattern Leads to Increased Forecast Uncertainty.
Bob Henson
Figure 1. latest visible satellite image for Hurricane Patricia.
Figure 2. Infrared satellite image of Hurricane Patricia taken at 1:45 pm EDT Thursday, October 22, 2015. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.
There is no sign of any letup in Patricia’s intensification. A pinhole eye was becoming evident in visible and infrared satellite imagery at midday Thursday (see Figures 1 and 2). Ominously, the rapid intensification index from the SHIPS model on Thursday morning showed a 95 percent chance of Patricia strengthening by another 45 mph over the 24 hours (Patricia’s intensity at that point was estimated at 100 mph). At 2 pm EDT Thursday, the National Hurricane Center projected that Patricia would peak at 150 mph winds by Friday morning--just 10 mph below Category 5 strength--and would strike the Mexican coast as a Category 4 storm. Update: At 8 pm EDT Thursday, Patricia's top sustained winds were already up to 150 mph. Satellite loops suggest that Patricia could be upgraded to Category 5 strength by Friday morning, if not Thursday night.
The track forecast for Patricia
After roughly paralleling the Mexican coast on Thursday, Patricia is expected to make a rapid turn toward the north, bringing it onshore between Puerto Vallarta and Manzanillo on Friday night. Models have edged westward slightly, which reduces the threat of a direct strike on Manzanillo but increases the chance that Puerto Vallarta will experience impacts. On its currently forecast track, Patricia would pass east of Puerto Vallarta after several hours over land, but only a slight westward bend could results in a more direct strike on Puerto Vallarta. Hurricane warnings are in effect from Cabo Corrientes to Punta San Telmo, with a hurricane watch extending east to Lazaro Cardenas. A hurricane watch and tropical storm warning extend west from the warning area to San Blas, including Puerto Vallarta.
Figure 3. Major hurricanes (Category 3, 4, and 5) that have passed within 200 miles of Patricia’s location (15.0°N, 104.0°W as of 2 PM EDT Thursday, October 22, 2005).
Few of the Northeast Pacific’s major hurricanes strike the Mexican coast
Although the Northeast Pacific can be a highly active region for hurricanes, relatively few of these make landfall on the Mexican coast, thanks largely to the coastline’s northwest-to-southeast orientation. Most hurricanes that develop off Mexico’s Pacific coast track west or west-northwest, eventually decaying well out to sea (see Figure 3). However, the exceptions can be devastating. Landfalling hurricanes in this area are most common toward the end of the season, as upper-level westerlies begin to penetrate far enough south to force low-latitude storms to recurve. The last major hurricane to make landfall in the Mexican states under threat from Patricia--Nayarit, Jalisco, and Colima--was Category 4 Hurricane Kenna in late October 2002. Causing at least four deaths and inflicting around $100 million US in damage, Kenna struck with winds of 140 mph, which made it the second-strongest Pacific storm to strike Mexico in modern records. The strongest was an unnamed 1959 hurricane that struck near Manzanillo, also in late October. This catastrophic storm is the only Category 5 hurricane to strike Mexico’s Pacific coast, with estimated peak winds of near 160 mph (but the storm will likely be downgraded to Category 4 status based on a reanalysis now under review.) Damage was $280 million US, which would equate to more than $2 billion in current dollars. Some 1800 deaths were attributed to the storm, making it the deadliest Northeast Pacific hurricane on record.
Figure 4. Predicted rainfall for Hurricane Patricia from the 2 am EDT (06 UTC) Thursday, October 22, 2015 run of the HWRF model. Patricia is predicted to dump widespread rains of 8 - 16" along the coast, and bring a swath of 2 - 4" of rain all the way to South Texas. Image credit: NOAA.
Torrential rains aiming for Texas
Patricia will compound an ongoing heavy rain episode in Texas being driven by the approach of a strong upper-level low. Rich Gulf moisture is pooling along a surface front associated with the upper low. A cluster of heavy storms covered most of western Oklahoma at midday, extending into the west half of North Texas. This slow-moving area is expected to stall tonight and Friday over northern Texas, producing a stripe of rainfall that could total 6” - 8”. The Dallas-Fort Worth area could end up within this belt of heaviest rain. Round Two arrives with the injection of moisture ahead of Hurricane Patricia, whose remnants will be sweeping across Mexico toward Texas this weekend.
Figure 5. 3-day precipitation forecast for the period 0Z Friday, October 23 (7:00 pm EDT Thursday) through 0Z Monday. Image credit: NOAA/NWS Weather Prediction Center.
Figure 6. Latest drought status across Texas as of Tuesday, October 20, as released in the U.S. Drought Monitor on October 22. We can expect much of this red to disappear by next week! Image credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.
Conditions are aligning for a predecessor rain event (PRE) across the heart of Texas as Patricia approaches this weekend. In such events, tropical moisture well out ahead of a landfalling tropical cyclone interacts with a surface front and upper-level trough to produce heavy rainfall, often with significant inland flooding. By Saturday and Sunday, Patricia’s remnants will be moving across southern Texas, exacerbating rainfall there. Multi-day totals for the whole event will depend on where each of the various elements ends up being focused, but central Texas from Dallas to Austin appears to be most at risk for totals that could locally exceed a foot. It’s been a year of rainfall extremity for Texas: May was by far the wettest month in state history, quenching severe drought conditions, while dryness in late summer and early fall put much of the state back into drought (see Figure 6).
Tropical cyclones from the Northeast Pacific are notorious autumn rainmakers in Texas and Oklahoma. In late October 1983, Hurricane Tico caused hundreds of millions in US damage and led to rainfall totals exceeding a foot across parts of northern Texas and southern Oklahoma.
Figure 7. Latest satellite image of Hurricane Olaf.
Two other major hurricanes in the Pacific: Olaf and Champi
Though it’s weakened notably in the last 24 hours, Hurricane Olaf remained a Category 3 storm as of the 11 am EDT Thursday advisory from NHC. Olaf’s recurving path toward the north-northwest will be taking it into increasing shear and over gradually cooler waters over the next several days, leading to a gradual decline. However, Olaf is still projected to be a tropical cyclone on Tuesday morning, October 27, and its remnants will be sweeping toward the U.S. West Coast by midweek. Computer models still differ on Olaf’s evolution at that point, but at minimum, we can expect some of its moisture and energy to be folded into a Pacific Northwest storm, and some associated rainfall as far south as California can’t be ruled out yet.
Figure 8. Latest satellite image of Typhoon Champi.
In the Northwest Pacific, Typhoon Champi continues to rage, with top sustained winds of 115 mph as of the most recent advisory. Champi has become an annular typhoon, with a gigantic eye estimated at 70 miles in diameter (see this Capital Weather Gang feature). Champi will accelerate to the northeast over the next several days, likely maintaining tropical storm intensity through at least Sunday before it gets swept into a powerful, non-tropical storm system in the North Pacific.
Wunderblogger Steve Gregory has an update in his Thursday afternoon post, Heavy Rain in Texas as Progressive Pattern Leads to Increased Forecast Uncertainty.
Bob Henson
Typhoon Champi develops massive eye: https://t.co/BURaJbu1Ic pic.twitter.com/r2jmS6g5aD
— NASA Goddard Images (@NASAGoddardPix) October 22, 2015The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.