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Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.Monsoon Floods Kill 420 in India and Pakistan
Torrential monsoon rains of over 12" (305 mm) lashed the India-Pakistan border region of Kashmir and Jammu Provinces on September 3 - 7, triggering devastating floods that swept through the mountainous region, killing at least 420 people, according to Reuters. Thousands more have been trapped by flood waters, and on the Indian side of the border, over 2,000 villages have been inundated, along with the major city of Srinagar. The heavy rains fell in what has been a below-average monsoon season, with rainfall from June 1 - September 3 totaling 15% below average over India and 32% below average over the flood-hit northern provinces of Jammu and Kashmir, according to the India Meteorological Department.
Figure 1. A temple is partially submerged in floodwaters in Jammu, India, Saturday, Sept. 6, 2014. (AP Photo/Channi Anand)
Figure 2. Precipitation totals for the seven-day period ending at 18 UTC September 8, 2014, show that up to 14" (356 mm) fell along the India-Pakistan border in Kashmir. Image credit: NASA/TRMM.
Figure 3. MODIS true-color image of a powerful monsoon low over the India-Pakistan border region of Kashmir on September 5, 2014. Image credit: NASA.
Catastrophic floods: the new normal in Pakistan
In Pakistan, where at least 207 people died in the past weeks' flooding, crippling and catastrophic floods have become the new normal. The past four consecutive monsoon seasons--2013, 2012, 2011, and 2010--have all seen top-five most expensive flood disasters in Pakistani history. The worst came in 2010, when the second heaviest monsoon rains of the past 50 years triggered rampaging floods that inundated one-fifth of the country, killing 1,985 people and causing a staggering $9.5 billion in damage--4% of the nation's GDP--according to the International Disaster Database, EM-DAT. Part of the reason for the increase in destructive flooding is due to poor flood control infrastructure, combined with a rising population and ineffective government policies.
Figure 4. Kashmiri residents struggle to withstand sudden and strong water currents while wading through floodwaters in their efforts to move to safer places in Srinagar, India, Thursday, Sept. 4, 2014. (AP Photo/Dar Yasin)
Heavy monsoon rainfall events are increasing
A warming climate loads the dice in favor of heavier extreme precipitation events. This occurs because more water vapor can evaporate into a warmer atmosphere, increasing the chances of record heavy downpours. In a study published in Science in 2006, Goswami et al. found that the level of heavy rainfall activity in the monsoon over India had more than doubled in the 50 years since the 1950s, leading to an increased disaster potential from heavy flooding. Moderate and weak rain events decreased during those 50 years, leaving the total amount of rain deposited by the monsoon roughly constant. The authors commented, "These findings are in tune with model projections and some observations that indicate an increase in heavy rain events and a decrease in weak events under global warming scenarios." However, a 2011 study by Ghosh et al., "Lack of uniform trends but increasing spatial variability in observed Indian rainfall extremes", cautioned that the observed increase in heavy precipitation events in India had a very complicated pattern that was not easily quantified. In general, we should expect to see an increased number of disastrous monsoon floods in coming decades if the climate continues to warm as expected. Since the population continues to increase at a rapid rate in the region, death tolls from monsoon flooding disasters are likely to climb dramatically in coming decades. However, my greater concern for India is drought. The monsoon rains often fail during El Niño years, and more than 4.2 million people died in India due to droughts between 1900 - 2012. Up until the late 1960s, it was common for the failure of the monsoon rains to kill millions of people in India. The drought of 1965 - 1967 killed at least 1.5 million people. However, since the Green Revolution of the late 1960s--a government initiative to improve food self-sufficiency using new technology and high-yield grains--failure of the monsoon rains has not led to mass starvation in India. It is uncertain whether of not the Green Revolution can keep up with India's booming population, and the potential that climate change might bring more severe droughts. Climate models show a wide range of possibilities for the future of the Indian monsoon, and it is unclear at present what the future might hold. However, the fact that one of the worst droughts in India's history occurred in 2009 shows that serious droughts have to be a major concern for the future. The five worst Indian monsoons along with the rainfall deficits for the nation:
1) 1877, -33%
2) 1899, -29%
3) 1918, -25%
4) 1972, -24%
5) 2009, -22%
References
Ghosh et al., "Lack of uniform trends but increasing spatial variability in observed Indian rainfall extremes", Nature Climate Change 2, 86–91 (2012) doi:10.1038/nclimate1327
Goswami, et al., 2006, " Increasing Trend of Extreme Rain Events Over India in a Warming Environment", Science, 1 December 2006:Vol. 314. no. 5804, pp. 1442 - 1445 DOI: 10.1126/science.1132027
Wunderground's climate change blogger Dr. Ricky Rood wrote a nice 3-part series about the challenges India faces due to climate change after he completed a 2009 trip there.
Over 500 killed in India's Monsoon Floods, my June 21, 2013 blog post
Tropical Wave 91L
A tropical wave (91L) located a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verde Islands is headed west-northwest at about 15 mph. Satellite images show 91L has a moderate amount of spin and a limited amount thunderstorm activity, and these thunderstorms are poorly organized. The disturbance is embedded in a moist air mass, has moderately warm (SSTs) of 28°C (83°F) beneath it, and is experiencing light wind shear. These conditions favor development. The 8 am EDT Tuesday run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear would remain light to moderate ( 5 - 15 knots) the atmosphere at mid-levels of the atmosphere (between 500 - 700 mb) will remain moist, favoring development. All three of our three reliable computer models for predicting tropical storm formation predict development of 91L over the next five days. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system 2-day and 5-day odd of development odds of 30% and 70%, respectively. A trough of low pressure expected to push off the U.S. East Coast early next week should induce a more northwesterly track for 91L next week, and the disturbance does not appear to be a long-range threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands. It remains to be seen if 91L will be a long-range threat to Bermuda, the U.S. East Coast, or the Canadian Maritime Provinces late next week.
Hurricane expert Steve Gregory has a more detailed look at the tropics as well as a discussion of the record rainfall in Arizona yesterday in his latest post.
Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt discusses the records rains in Arizona on Monday in his latest post.
97 Hours of Consensus
On Sunday, 9/7, the climate change myth-debunking website skepticalscience.com launched their 97 Hours of Consensus campaign addressing one of the most significant and harmful myths about climate change. Each hour, beginning at 9am Sunday, September 7, they began publishing a playful, hand-drawn caricature of a leading climate scientist along with a statement by them regarding climate change. Each caricature lists the scientists’ name, title, expertise and academic institution. 97 Hours of Consensus communicates the fact that 97% of climate scientists have concluded that humans are causing global warming. The research, conducted by scientists at The University of Queensland’s Global Change Institute, University of Reading, Michigan Technological University and Memorial University of Newfoundland found that 97% of relevant climate papers endorsed human-caused global warming. The paper was published in the academic journal Environmental Research Letters in May 2013. You can see the scientists without names at http://sks.to/97--click on the character for their name, quote, institution and expertise. Also watch as the 3% of dissenting scientists get added to the crowd. All the full quotes (with links to source and scientist bio page) are available at http://skepticalscience.com/graphics.php?c=9.
Jeff Masters
Figure 1. A temple is partially submerged in floodwaters in Jammu, India, Saturday, Sept. 6, 2014. (AP Photo/Channi Anand)
Figure 2. Precipitation totals for the seven-day period ending at 18 UTC September 8, 2014, show that up to 14" (356 mm) fell along the India-Pakistan border in Kashmir. Image credit: NASA/TRMM.
Figure 3. MODIS true-color image of a powerful monsoon low over the India-Pakistan border region of Kashmir on September 5, 2014. Image credit: NASA.
Catastrophic floods: the new normal in Pakistan
In Pakistan, where at least 207 people died in the past weeks' flooding, crippling and catastrophic floods have become the new normal. The past four consecutive monsoon seasons--2013, 2012, 2011, and 2010--have all seen top-five most expensive flood disasters in Pakistani history. The worst came in 2010, when the second heaviest monsoon rains of the past 50 years triggered rampaging floods that inundated one-fifth of the country, killing 1,985 people and causing a staggering $9.5 billion in damage--4% of the nation's GDP--according to the International Disaster Database, EM-DAT. Part of the reason for the increase in destructive flooding is due to poor flood control infrastructure, combined with a rising population and ineffective government policies.
Figure 4. Kashmiri residents struggle to withstand sudden and strong water currents while wading through floodwaters in their efforts to move to safer places in Srinagar, India, Thursday, Sept. 4, 2014. (AP Photo/Dar Yasin)
Heavy monsoon rainfall events are increasing
A warming climate loads the dice in favor of heavier extreme precipitation events. This occurs because more water vapor can evaporate into a warmer atmosphere, increasing the chances of record heavy downpours. In a study published in Science in 2006, Goswami et al. found that the level of heavy rainfall activity in the monsoon over India had more than doubled in the 50 years since the 1950s, leading to an increased disaster potential from heavy flooding. Moderate and weak rain events decreased during those 50 years, leaving the total amount of rain deposited by the monsoon roughly constant. The authors commented, "These findings are in tune with model projections and some observations that indicate an increase in heavy rain events and a decrease in weak events under global warming scenarios." However, a 2011 study by Ghosh et al., "Lack of uniform trends but increasing spatial variability in observed Indian rainfall extremes", cautioned that the observed increase in heavy precipitation events in India had a very complicated pattern that was not easily quantified. In general, we should expect to see an increased number of disastrous monsoon floods in coming decades if the climate continues to warm as expected. Since the population continues to increase at a rapid rate in the region, death tolls from monsoon flooding disasters are likely to climb dramatically in coming decades. However, my greater concern for India is drought. The monsoon rains often fail during El Niño years, and more than 4.2 million people died in India due to droughts between 1900 - 2012. Up until the late 1960s, it was common for the failure of the monsoon rains to kill millions of people in India. The drought of 1965 - 1967 killed at least 1.5 million people. However, since the Green Revolution of the late 1960s--a government initiative to improve food self-sufficiency using new technology and high-yield grains--failure of the monsoon rains has not led to mass starvation in India. It is uncertain whether of not the Green Revolution can keep up with India's booming population, and the potential that climate change might bring more severe droughts. Climate models show a wide range of possibilities for the future of the Indian monsoon, and it is unclear at present what the future might hold. However, the fact that one of the worst droughts in India's history occurred in 2009 shows that serious droughts have to be a major concern for the future. The five worst Indian monsoons along with the rainfall deficits for the nation:
1) 1877, -33%
2) 1899, -29%
3) 1918, -25%
4) 1972, -24%
5) 2009, -22%
References
Ghosh et al., "Lack of uniform trends but increasing spatial variability in observed Indian rainfall extremes", Nature Climate Change 2, 86–91 (2012) doi:10.1038/nclimate1327
Goswami, et al., 2006, " Increasing Trend of Extreme Rain Events Over India in a Warming Environment", Science, 1 December 2006:Vol. 314. no. 5804, pp. 1442 - 1445 DOI: 10.1126/science.1132027
Wunderground's climate change blogger Dr. Ricky Rood wrote a nice 3-part series about the challenges India faces due to climate change after he completed a 2009 trip there.
Over 500 killed in India's Monsoon Floods, my June 21, 2013 blog post
Tropical Wave 91L
A tropical wave (91L) located a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verde Islands is headed west-northwest at about 15 mph. Satellite images show 91L has a moderate amount of spin and a limited amount thunderstorm activity, and these thunderstorms are poorly organized. The disturbance is embedded in a moist air mass, has moderately warm (SSTs) of 28°C (83°F) beneath it, and is experiencing light wind shear. These conditions favor development. The 8 am EDT Tuesday run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear would remain light to moderate ( 5 - 15 knots) the atmosphere at mid-levels of the atmosphere (between 500 - 700 mb) will remain moist, favoring development. All three of our three reliable computer models for predicting tropical storm formation predict development of 91L over the next five days. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system 2-day and 5-day odd of development odds of 30% and 70%, respectively. A trough of low pressure expected to push off the U.S. East Coast early next week should induce a more northwesterly track for 91L next week, and the disturbance does not appear to be a long-range threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands. It remains to be seen if 91L will be a long-range threat to Bermuda, the U.S. East Coast, or the Canadian Maritime Provinces late next week.
Hurricane expert Steve Gregory has a more detailed look at the tropics as well as a discussion of the record rainfall in Arizona yesterday in his latest post.
Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt discusses the records rains in Arizona on Monday in his latest post.
97 Hours of Consensus
On Sunday, 9/7, the climate change myth-debunking website skepticalscience.com launched their 97 Hours of Consensus campaign addressing one of the most significant and harmful myths about climate change. Each hour, beginning at 9am Sunday, September 7, they began publishing a playful, hand-drawn caricature of a leading climate scientist along with a statement by them regarding climate change. Each caricature lists the scientists’ name, title, expertise and academic institution. 97 Hours of Consensus communicates the fact that 97% of climate scientists have concluded that humans are causing global warming. The research, conducted by scientists at The University of Queensland’s Global Change Institute, University of Reading, Michigan Technological University and Memorial University of Newfoundland found that 97% of relevant climate papers endorsed human-caused global warming. The paper was published in the academic journal Environmental Research Letters in May 2013. You can see the scientists without names at http://sks.to/97--click on the character for their name, quote, institution and expertise. Also watch as the 3% of dissenting scientists get added to the crowd. All the full quotes (with links to source and scientist bio page) are available at http://skepticalscience.com/graphics.php?c=9.
Jeff Masters
The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.