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Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.Neoguri Weakens to a Tropical Storm, Brings Torrential Rains to Japan
Tropical Storm Neoguri continues its steady weakening trend as it closes in on the large southern Japanese island of Kyushu. Landfall of the center is expected to occur near 6 am local time on Thursday (Wednesday night in the U.S.) Once a mighty super typhoon with 155 mph winds, Neoguri has now weakened to a tropical storm with 70 mph winds as of 11 am EDT on Wednesday. Satellite images Wednesday morning showed a continued deterioration of Neoguri's heavy thunderstorms as high wind shear of 20 knots tore at the storm and the storm moved over cooler sea surface temperatures. Neoguri passed through Japan's Ryukyu Islands on Monday, killing two people and injuring 30. Japan Meteorological Agency radar showed that very heavy rains of up to two inches per hour (50.8 mm/hr) were affecting southern Kyushu Wednesday night local time (Wednesday morning EDT), and Tahiro recorded 55 mm (2.16") in the two hours ending at 10 pm local time on Wednesday. Some mountainous areas of southern Japan are predicted to receive 20 - 28" of rain from Neoguri. With soils already saturated from a week of heavy rains prior to Neoguri's arrival, damaging flooding is expected.
Figure 1. ESA astronaut Alexander Gerst tweeted this photo of Typhoon Neoguri at 22 UTC July 8, 2014. At the time, Neoguri was a weakening Category 2 typhoon with 100 mph winds.
Figure 2. Radar image of rains from Neoguri affecting southern Japan, at 10:50 pm local time Wednesday, July 9, 2014. Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.
Links
Japanese radar
Official Neoguri forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency
Impact of Neoguri on U.S. weather
While the remnants of Typhoon Neoguri will not impact the U.S. directly, the large and powerful nature of this storm has set in motion a chain-reaction set of events that will dramatically alter the path of the jet stream and affect weather patterns across the entire Northern Hemisphere next week. Neoguri will cause an acceleration of the North Pacific jet stream, causing a large amount of warm, moist tropical air to push over the North Pacific. This will amplify a trough low pressure over Alaska, causing a ripple effect in the jet stream over western North America, where a strong ridge of high pressure will develop, and over the Midwestern U.S., where a strong trough of low pressure will form. This jet stream pattern is similar to the nasty"Polar Vortex" pattern that set up during the winter of 2014 over North America, and will cause an unusually cool third week of July over the portions of the Midwest and Ohio Valley, with temperatures 10 - 20°F below average.
Figure 3. One-week forecast for the departure of surface temperature from average for July 16, 2014, as predicted by the GFS model at 00 UTC July 9, 2014. A strong trough of low pressure is predicted to form over the Midwest U.S., bringing temperatures 10 - 20°F below average. Data/image obtained using Climate Reanalyzer™ (http://cci-reanalyzer.org), Climate Change Institute, University of Maine, Orono, Maine.
Jeff Masters
Figure 1. ESA astronaut Alexander Gerst tweeted this photo of Typhoon Neoguri at 22 UTC July 8, 2014. At the time, Neoguri was a weakening Category 2 typhoon with 100 mph winds.
Figure 2. Radar image of rains from Neoguri affecting southern Japan, at 10:50 pm local time Wednesday, July 9, 2014. Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.
Links
Japanese radar
Official Neoguri forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency
Impact of Neoguri on U.S. weather
While the remnants of Typhoon Neoguri will not impact the U.S. directly, the large and powerful nature of this storm has set in motion a chain-reaction set of events that will dramatically alter the path of the jet stream and affect weather patterns across the entire Northern Hemisphere next week. Neoguri will cause an acceleration of the North Pacific jet stream, causing a large amount of warm, moist tropical air to push over the North Pacific. This will amplify a trough low pressure over Alaska, causing a ripple effect in the jet stream over western North America, where a strong ridge of high pressure will develop, and over the Midwestern U.S., where a strong trough of low pressure will form. This jet stream pattern is similar to the nasty"Polar Vortex" pattern that set up during the winter of 2014 over North America, and will cause an unusually cool third week of July over the portions of the Midwest and Ohio Valley, with temperatures 10 - 20°F below average.
Figure 3. One-week forecast for the departure of surface temperature from average for July 16, 2014, as predicted by the GFS model at 00 UTC July 9, 2014. A strong trough of low pressure is predicted to form over the Midwest U.S., bringing temperatures 10 - 20°F below average. Data/image obtained using Climate Reanalyzer™ (http://cci-reanalyzer.org), Climate Change Institute, University of Maine, Orono, Maine.
Jeff Masters
The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.