No fireworks in the tropics today

There will be no natural fireworks in the tropics today--unless you happen to be in the Western Pacific, where Category 4 Typhoon Ewiniar is chugging north over the open ocean. "Ewiniar" is the Chuuk Islands' (Micronesia) traditional storm God, and his namesake storm is thankfully expected to weaken to Category 1 strength before threatening Japan this weekend.

In the Atlantic, there is an area of disturbed weather over the Bahama Islands associated with an upper-level low pressure system. This low is kicking up some strong thunderstorms just east of Florida, and is expected to drift west-southwest over Florida by Wednesday. Tropical development of this area is unlikely today and tomorrow. There will be strong northwestery flow of air at upper levels over Florida that should bring unfavorable wind shear to the system, and there is also a large area of dry air to contend with. However, by Friday or Saturday, computer models are indicating the possibility that something could develop east of Florida or south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, and zip northwards along the East Coast. This development could be non-tropical, though.

The other area we need to watch the next few days is the Gulf of Mexico. While there is currently no activity of note, wind shear will be light enough in some regions of the Gulf to allow slow tropical development over the next few days. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is quiet today.

Have a great 4th of July, everyone!
Jeff Masters