NOAA and NASA: Earth’s Warmest May on Record

The warming influence of the intense 2015 - 2016 El Niño event is waning, but May 2016 was still the planet's warmest May since record keeping began in 1880, said NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) on Thursday. In the NOAA database, May 2016 came in 0.87°C (1.57°F) warmer than the 20th-century average for May, beating the previous record for May, set in 2015, by 0.02°C. This is the smallest margin the monthly global temperature has broken a record by since August 2015. NASA also reported the warmest May in its database, although the Japan Meteorological Agency placed May 2016 just a whisker (0.01°C) behind May 2015. May 2016 marked the 13th consecutive month that the global monthly temperature record was broken--the longest such streak since global temperature records began in 1880. Global ocean temperatures were the warmest on record for any May, but global land temperatures were the third warmest. Global satellite-measured temperatures in May 2016 for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 2nd warmest for any May in the 38-year record, and the year-to-date period was the warmest on record, according to the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH).

The impressive global warmth in recent months is due to the steady build-up of heat-trapping greenhouse gases due to human activities, plus a spike due to a large amount of heat being released from waters in the Eastern Pacific due to the powerful 2015-16 El Niño event. This event peaked in December, and NOAA’s global surface temperature for the year so far (January-May 2016) is a remarkable 0.24°C (0.43°F) warmer than the previous record, set in 2015 (see Figure 1). Last month, NASA/GISS director Gavin Schmidt laid 99% odds on this year becoming the warmest in global records, which would make it Earth's third consecutive warmest year on record.


Figure 1. Cumulative departures from normal in global temperature (year to date) for each month in 2016. For the year thus far (January-May), 2016 is head and shoulders above all other years in the NOAA database going back to 1895. The six closest competitors are shown above. Image credit: NOAA/NCEI.



Figure 2. Departure of temperature from average for May 2016, the warmest May for the globe since record keeping began in 1880. Areas with record warmth included much of Southeast Asia and parts of northern South America, Central America, the Caribbean, the Middle East, and northern and eastern Australia. Pockets of record warmth were observed across every major ocean basin, including the northwestern and southwestern Atlantic Ocean, much of the Indian Ocean, parts of the southwest Pacific Ocean and southern Pacific Ocean. Image credit: National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI).



Figure 3. Departure from average for the global January-through-May temperature for the years 1880 - 2016. As is evident here and in Figure 1, this year has seen by far the warmest temperatures on record for the year-to-date period. Image credit: NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI).

El Niño is over
El Niño dissipated in May 2016, giving way to ENSO-neutral conditions as sea surface temperatures continued to decrease across the tropical Pacific Ocean. According to NOAA's >Climate Prediction Center, La Niña is favored to develop during late Northern Hemisphere summer 2016, with a nearly 75 percent chance for La Niña during the fall and winter 2016–17. See our post from June 9 for more on the anticipated big switch.

Arctic sea ice at its lowest May extent on record
May sea ice extent in 2016 was the lowest in the 38-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). The melt rate in the Arctic was 2 - 4 weeks ahead of the pace of 2012, which ended up with the lowest summer sea ice extent on record. However, the melt rate slowed dramatically in the first half of June, and it remains uncertain whether a record will be set. Snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere in May 2016 was the fourth lowest for May and was a record low for spring (March, April, and May), as reported from 50 years of mapping by the Rutgers University Global Snow Lab. Over the last several decades, Northern Hemisphere snow cover has changed little in autumn but has declined markedly in spring.

Four billion-dollar weather disasters in May 2016
According to the May 2016 Catastrophe Report from insurance broker Aon Benfield, four billion-dollar weather-related disasters hit the planet in May--a wildfire in Ft. McMurray, Canada, flooding from Tropical Cyclone Roanu in Sri Lanka, flooding in Northern Europe, and a drought in India. Between January - May 2016, there were sixteen billion-dollar weather disasters. This is well ahead of pace of thirteen such disasters in January - May 2013--the year that ended up with the most billion-dollar weather disasters on record: 41. Here is the tally of billion-dollar weather disasters for January - May 2016:

1) Drought, Vietnam, 1/1 - 6/1, $6.7 billion, 0 killed
2) Drought, India, 1/1 - 6/1, $5.0 billion, 0 killed
3) Flooding, Germany, France, Austria, Poland, 5/26 - 6/6, $5.0 billion, 17 killed
4) Severe Weather, Plains-Southeast U.S., 4/10 - 4/13, $3.75 billion, 1 killed
5) Wildfire, Fort McMurray, Canada, 5/1- 5/30, $3.1 billion, 0 killed
6) Winter Weather, Eastern U.S., 1/21 - 1/24, $2.0 billion, 58 killed
7) Winter Weather, East Asia, 1/20 - 1/26, $2.0 billion, 116 killed
8) Severe Weather, Rockies-Plains-Southeast-Midwest U.S., 3/22 - 3/25, $1.75 billion
9) Tropical Cyclone Roanu, Sri Lanka, India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, China, 5/14 - 5/21, $1.7 billion, 135 killed
10) Drought, Zimbabwe, 1/1 - 3/1, $1.6 billion, 0 killed
11) Flooding, Argentina and Uruguay, 4/4 - 4/10, $1.3 billion, 0 killed
12) Severe Weather, Plains-Midwest-Southeast-Northeast U.S., 3/4 - 3/12, $1.25 billion, 6 killed
13) Severe Weather, Plains-Midwest-Southeast-Northeast U.S., 2/22 - 2/25, $1.2 billion, 10 killed
14) Flooding, Plains-Rockies U.S., 4/15 - 4/19, $1.0 billion, 9 killed
15) Severe Weather, Plains-Southeast U.S., 3/17 - 3/18, $1.0 billion, 0 killed
16) Tropical Cyclone Winston, Fiji, 2/16 - 2/22, $1.0 billion, 44 killed

And here are the four disasters from May 2016:


Disaster 1.  Cyclone Roanu brought torrential rainfall and devastating floods and landslides to much of Sri Lanka and portions of India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, and China on May 14 - 21, 2016. At least 135 people were killed and damages were estimated at over $1.7 billion. In this image, we see Sri Lankan military personnel take part in relief and rescue efforts following a landslide in the village of Bulathkohupitiya on May 18, 2016. (STR/AFP/Getty Images)


Disaster 2. Canada's most expensive natural disaster in history came in May 2016, when a devastating wildfire roared through Fort McMurray, Alberta, causing at least $3.1 billion in damage. In this photo, we see a group trying to rescue animals from Fort McMurray waiting at a road block on Highway 63 as smoke rises from the fire on May 6, 2016. Image credit: Cole Burston/AFP/Getty Images.


Disaster 3. El Niño-related drought conditions that began in India in 2015 intensified during 2016, causing at least $5 billion in losses. The drought was worsened by a May heat wave that brought the hottest temperature ever recorded in India--51.0°C (123.8°F) at Phalodi on May 19, 2016. In this image, we see residents of New Delhi enduring another day of sizzling heat on Monday, May 2, 2016. Temperatures  hit a record 46°C (114.8°F) at Indira Gandhi International Airport and 44°C (111.2°F) at the city’s Safdarjung observatory that day. Image credit: Ramesh Sharma/India Today Group/Getty Images.


Disaster 4. Extratropical storm "Elvira" spawned numerous severe thunderstorms and torrential rains across parts of northern Europe between May 26 and June 6, killing at least 17 people and causing $5 billion in damage. The heaviest damage was in Germany, France, Austria, Poland and Belgium. In this image, we see firemen rescuing two women on June 3, 2016 in Simbach am Inn, Germany. (Photo by Sebastian Widmann/Getty Images)

Notable global heat and cold marks set for May 2016
Hottest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: 52.2°C (126.0°F) at Larkana, Pakistan, 19 May
Coldest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: -37.6°C (-35.7°F) at Geo Summit, Greenland, 5 May
Hottest temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: 40.3°C (104.5°F) at Derby Aerodrome, Australia, 3 May
Coldest temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: -78.1°C (-108.6°F) at Nico, Antarctica, 15 May
(Courtesy of Maximiliano Herrera.)

Major weather stations that set (not tied) new all-time heat or cold records in May 2016
A record heat wave in Southeast Asia led to an uncommonly long list of all-time local heat records in that region:
Oaxaca Airport (Mexico) max. 39.1°C, 1 May
Car Nicobar (India) max. 35.5°C, 2 May; increased to 36.5°C on 9 May
Truong Sa (Vietnam) max. 36.2°C, 3 May; increased to 36.9°C on 14 May
Jaffna (Sri Lanka) max. 37.1°C, 3 May
Mersing (Malaysia) max. 37.8°C, 4 May; increased to 38.2°C on 18 May
Phuket (Thailand) max. 37.9°C, 5 May
Iba (Philippines) max. 39.2°C, 5 May
Nakhon Sawan (Thailand) max. 43.5°C, 6 May; increased to 43.7°C on 7 May
Mae Sot (Thailand) max. 41.8°C, 7 May
Saravane (Laos) max. 42.0°C, 7 May
Dawei (Myanmar) max. 39.5°C, 7 May
Pachuca (Mexico) max. 32.5°C, 8 May
Kota Kinabalu (Malaysia) max. 36.5°C, 8 May
Toungoo (Myanmar) max. 43.0°C, 10 May; increased to 43.4°C on 11 May; increased to 44.0°C on 16 May
Mengla (China) max. 38.2°C, 10 May; increased to 38.4 on 11 May
Phitsanulok (Thailand) max. 42.7°C, 11 May
Surat Thani (Thailand) max. 41.4°C, 11 May
Houei Sai (Laos) max. 41.2°C, 11 May
Chiang Mai (Thailand) max. 42.5°C, 11 May
Chiang Rai (Thailand) max. 41.8°C, 12 May
Koh Sichang (Thailand) max. 38.0°C, 16 May
Mergui (Myanmar) max. 39.5°C, 18 May
Phalodi (India) max. 50.5°C; 18 May increased to 51.0°C on 19 May:  New national record high for India
Churu (India) max. 49.1°C, 18 May; increased to 50.2°C on 19 May
Kandla (India) max. 48.4°C, 18 May
Surendranagar (India) max. 47.8°C, 18 May
Amreli (India) max. 46.8°C, 19 May
Bikaner (India) max. 49.5°C, 19 May
Jodhpur (India) max. 48.8°C, 19 May
Pilani (India) max. 47.5°C, 19 May
Ahmedabad (India) max. 48.0°C, 19 May
Erinpura (India) max.  48.4°C, 19 May
Sawai Madhopur  (India) max. 48.7°C, 19 May
Jalore (India) max. 48.9°C, 19 May
Mount Abu (India) max. 39.4°C, 19 May
Bhopal (India) max. 46.7°C, 20 May

(Courtesy of Maximiliano Herrera.)

One all-time national heat record set in May 2016
One nation--India--set a record in May 2016 for its all-time hottest temperature on record. From January through June 16, 2016, a total of eleven nations or territories tied or set all-time records for their hottest temperature in recorded history--which is a very large number of records for so early in the year. One all-time cold temperature record has been set so far in 2016 (in Hong Kong.) "All-time" record here refers to the warmest or coldest temperature ever reliably reported in a nation or territory. The period of record varies from country to country and station to station, but it is typically a few decades to a century or more. Most nations do not maintain official databases of extreme temperature records, so the national temperature records reported here are in many cases not official. Our data source is international weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, one of the world's top climatologists, who maintains a comprehensive list of extreme temperature records for every nation in the world on his website. If you reproduce this list of extremes, please cite Maximiliano Herrera as the primary source of the weather records. Here are 2016's all-time heat and cold records as of June 16:

Niger set its all-time hottest record on June 8, 2016, when the mercury hit 49.0°C (120.2°F) at Bilma.

India set its all-time hottest record on May 19, 2016, when the mercury hit 51.0°C (123.8°F) at Phalodi.

Maldives set its all-time hottest record on April 30, 2016, when the mercury hit 35.0°C (94.8°F) at Hanimaadhoo.

Thailand set its all-time hottest record on April 28, 2016, when the mercury hit 44.6°C (112.3°F) at Mae Hong Son.

Cambodia set its all-time hottest record on April 15, 2016, when the mercury hit 42.6°C (108.7°F) at Preah Vihea.

Burkina Faso set its all-time hottest record on April 13, 2016, when the mercury hit 47.5°C (117.5°F) at Dori.

Laos set its all-time hottest record on April 12, 2016, when the mercury hit 42.3°C (108.1°F) at Seno.

Vanuatu in the South Pacific set its all-time hottest record on February 8, 2016, when the mercury hit 36.2°C (97.2°F) at Lamap Malekula.

Tonga set its all-time hottest record on February 1, 2016, when the mercury hit 35.5°C (95.9°F) at Niuafoou.

Wallis and Futuna Territory (France) set a new territorial heat record with 35.8°C (96.4°F) on January 10, 2016 at Futuna Airport. This is the second year in a row that Wallis and Futuna has beaten its all-time heat mark; the previous record was a 35.5°C (95.9°F) reading on January 19, 2015 at the Futuna Airport.

Botswana set its all-time hottest record on January 7, 2016, when the mercury hit 43.8°C (110.8°F) at Maun.

Hong Kong Territory (China) set its all-time coldest mark on January 24, 2016, when the mercury dipped to -6.0°C (21.2°F) at Tai Mo Shan.

Antarctica records its warmest minimum temperature on record
On May 27, 2016, the daily low temperature at Esperanza Base, on the outer end of the Antarctic Peninsula, was 8.8°C (47.8°F), which appears to be the warmest daily low on record anywhere in Antarctica, including the Antarctic Peninsula, King George Island, and other islands lying below the 60°S latitude that are considered part of the continent by the Antarctic Treaty. (WU weather historian Christopher Burt has a post on Antarctica’s all-time high of 17.5°C (63.5°F), set at Esperanza in March 2015.) Herrera has not found any other examples of daily lows in Antarctica any milder than 6.5°C. “For a continental record, this was smashed by an amazing margin,” he stated in an email. The high temperature at Esperanza the previous day--May 26, 2016--hit 17.2°C, which was its second highest temperature on record, just behind the famous 17.5°C record set last year. The late May 2016 records are truly remarkable since they were set less than a month before the onset of meteorological winter.

Africa records its warmest minimum temperature on record
On May 1, 2016, the highest minimum temperature ever recorded in Africa occurred, with a 37.5°C (99.5°F) reading at Yelimane, Mali. According to Herrera, only one minimum temperature in Africa was higher--a 38.0°C reading at Massawa, Eritrea on 30 June 1947. However, the values at that time were all rounded to 1°C, so this may not have been the actual minimum.

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson