Odile's Remnants Drench Southwest U.S.; Polo Expected to Stay Offshore of Mexico

Tropical Storm Odile is no more, destroyed by the rough terrain of Mexico and separation from warm ocean waters, after making landfall in the Northern Gulf of California 110 miles south of the Arizona border early Wednesday afternoon. The moisture from Odile lives on over the Southwest U.S., though, and has brought heavy rains of 2 - 4" over portions of Southeast Arizona, Southern New Mexico, and extreme Western Texas as of Thursday morning. Lubbock, Texas was under an areal flood warning Thursday morning, due to rains of 3 - 5", with some thunderstorms dropping rain at a rate of 5" per hour. Additional heavy rains of 3 - 6" will affect Eastern New Mexico and Western Texas over the next two days, as the core of Odile's remnants push eastwards. A flash flood watch is posted for El Paso in Texas, and Las Cruces and Roswell in New Mexico. During the past day, atmospheric moisture levels have been near or above the highest values on record for so late in the year over much of the region (with records going back to 1947.)


Figure 1. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending Thursday, September 25, 2014, from NOAA's Weather Prediction Center. A large area of 3 - 6 " of rain (orange colors) is expected over Eastern New Mexico and Western Texas.

Hurricane Polo brushing Southwest Mexico
Heavy rains are falling along the Pacific coast of Southwest Mexico as Hurricane Polo heads to the northwest, parallel to shore. The models have come into increasing agreement that the core of Polo will stay offshore of both Southwest Mexico and the Baja Peninsula, but Polo's heavy rains of 5 - 10" along the coast of Southwest Mexico represent a serious flooding threat. The 11 am EDT Thursday WInd Probability Forecast from NHC gave Cabo San Lucas on the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula a 30% chance of experiencing tropical storm-force winds from Polo, and a 1% chance of hurricane-force winds. Satellite loops show that Polo has plenty of heavy thunderstorms, but no eye yet. A hurricane hunter aircraft will investigate Polo Thursday afternoon.


Figure 2. Latest satellite image of Polo.

Edouard still a Category 1 hurricane, but weakening
Hurricane Edouard, the Atlantic's first major hurricane of the past two years, was still a Category 1 storm on Thursday morning, but had begun weakening due to passage over waters cooler than 24°C (75°F). Satellite images show that Edouard has lost its eye and much of its heavy thunderstorms, and is moving very rapidly to the east. Edouard is expected to dissipate without ever hitting any land areas.


Figure 3.The view from NOAA hurricane hunter research aircraft N42RF as it orbited inside the eye of Hurricane Edouard when it was a Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds on September 16, 2014. While in the eye, N42RF launched a drone "coyote" aircraft to take measurements at low altitude in the hurricane, where humans fear to go. Image credit: Kristie Twining, NOAA Hurricane Research Division. See the NOAA Hurricane Research Division blog for more details on this year's research missions.


Figure 4. Hurricane Edouard as seen from the International Space Station at approximately 10:30 am EDT Wednesday September 17, 2014. At the time, Edouard was a Category 1 storm with top sustained winds of 90 mph. Image credit: Reid Wiseman.

New African tropical wave 95L off the coast of Africa
A tropical wave (Invest 95L) that emerged from the coast of Africa on Wednesday night is being given support for developing by two of our three reliable tropical cyclone genesis models. Satellite loops show 95L has a moderate degree of spin, but sparse heavy thunderstorm activity. The wave is under light wind shear and over warm waters of 28°C (82°F), conditions that favor development. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the wave 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 10% and 20%, respectively. This wave is expected to move northwest near or over the Cape Verdes Islands over the weekend. Once it is northwest of the islands early next week, 95L will encounter drier air and increased wind shear--conditions hostile for development.

Tropical Storm Fung-wong forms near the Philippines
In the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Fung-wong spun up in the waters a few hundred miles east of the Philippines on Wednesday, and is expected to intensify into a Category 1 typhoon and brush the northern end of the Philippines' Luzon Island on Friday. Fung-wong may be a threat to Japan early next week.

The iCyclone Facebook page has some frightening video of Odile's landfall in Cabo San Lucas, showing the inside of storm chaser Josh Morgerman's hotel taking heavy damage.

August 2014 was Earth's warmest August on record said NOAA today, and I'll have a new post with the details this afternoon.

Jeff Masters