Paul ripped in half by shear; World Series rainout for Wednesday?

In the Atlantic, there are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the models are forecasting tropical development over the next six days. In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Paul is being torn in two by wind shear of 15-30 knots, and it appears that the storm will not cause significant damage to Mexico. Satellite loops of Paul show that the shear has torn away the upper portion of the storm, which is approaching Baja. A smaller lower-level portion has been left behind, and is quickly dissipating. Los Cabos radar shows some heavy thunderstorms approaching Baja, but I don't expect winds of more than 50 mph to affect Baja. All of the computer models are forecasting that there will be very little left of Paul by the time it reaches the coast of mainland Mexico, north of Mazatlan, on Wednesday.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Paul, updated every 1/2 hour.

World Series forecast
Tonight's game in St. Louis between the Tigers and the Cardinals looks to have good (but chilly) weather. Skies should be clear with light winds and a game-time temperature of 43 degrees. It's a different story on Wednesday, when a developing low pressure system is expected to bring 12 or more hours of steady rain to St. Louis beginning at about gametime. I expect an 80% chance of a rainout of Wednesday's game. The situation is a little better for Thursday, but there are going to be thunderstorms around--possibly severe--into Thursday night. I give it a 30% chance of a rainout for Thursday. Expect to see some baseball being played Friday night in St. Louis to make up for a rainout!

Jeff Masters