Philippines disaster

Heavy rains of up to 12 inches during the past week on Leyte Island in the Philippines have triggered mudslides that have killed hundreds and left over 1,500 people missing today. As we can see from a rainfall plot of the past week's rainfall (Figure 1), these heavy rains have affected only a small portion of the Philippines, and the rest of the Islands have escaped major rains. A modest La Ni�a episode is affecting the Pacific Ocean this winter, and precipitation over the Philippines is typically enhanced during a La Ni�a episode. We should not be surprised to hear of further heavy rain problems in the Philippines, Indonesia, and northern Australia over the coming months, unfortunately, due to the presence of La Ni�a. All of these regions usually experience above-normal rains during a La Ni�a episode.


Figure 1. Precipitation for the week ending February 17, 2006, as observed by the NASA TRMM satellite.


Figure 2. Mountainous region of southern Leyte where the landslides occurred.

Jeff Masters