Quiet in the Atlantic; Karina Forms, Julio Dying in the Pacific

In the Central Pacific, Tropical Storm Julio, located about 700 miles north of Honolulu, Hawaii, is nearing its end as high wind shear rips away at it. Julio was a hurricane most of this week in the waters north of Hawaii where no hurricane had ever been recorded before. Ordinarily, hurricanes cannot exist in those waters because of sea surface temperatures that are near 25°C, which is too cold to support a hurricane. However, ocean temperatures have been near 26 - 26.5°C this week, which is about 1°C above average, and warm enough to support a hurricane.


Figure 1. Hurricane Julio in the North Pacific 600 miles north of Hawaii at 21:10 UTC August 13, 2014. Image credit: NASA.

Hawaii should keep an eye on Tropical Storm Karina, which formed in the waters south of Mexico's Baja Peninsula on Wednesday. Karina is expected to intensify into a hurricane by Friday, and is headed west towards Hawaii. However, none of the computer models are currently predicting the Karina will affect Hawaii, as the storm is expected to become entangled early next week with tropical disturbance 90E, which lies 1300 miles east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii. This tropical disturbance could also become a tropical storm this weekend; in their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook NHC gave 90E 5-day odds of development of 70%. Karina's formation gives the Eastern Pacific 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricane so far this season, which is well above average. In a typical Eastern Pacific hurricane season, there should have been 7 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 1 intense hurricane by August 14.

Quiet in the Atlantic
In a typical Atlantic hurricane season, there should have been 3 named storms, 1 hurricane, and 0 intense hurricanes by August 14. So far this season, we have had 2 named storms (Arthur and Bertha), both of which became hurricanes. The typical formation date of the season's fourth named storm is August 23. There are no tropical cyclone threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for tropical cyclone formation is predicting development during the coming five days. The next chance for tropical storm formation would appear to be from a tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa early next week, but dry air will continue to interfere with development of any potential Atlantic systems for at least the next week.

Jeff Masters