Quiet in the Atlantic

A non-tropical "cut-off" low pressure system (92L) near 31N 32W, a few hundred miles southwest of the Azores Islands, has become more tropical. Satellite loops show thunderstorm activity near the center is trying to get organized, but this is being stymied by 30-40 knots of wind shear. Wind shear is expected to remain above 30 knots for the next two days. Sea Surface Temperatures are about 24° C under 92L, which is considerably cooler than the 26.5° usually needed to get a tropical cyclone going. The system is expected to turn northeast and move through the Azores Islands Friday, where SSTs are in the 21-22° C range. Due to the high wind shear and cool SSTs, development into a tropical cyclone is not likely.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer forecast models are predicting formation of a tropical cyclone over the coming week. Is hurricane season over? I'll have a full analysis of the possibilities Wednesday or Thursday of next week. Right now, it appears that we will not have any more landfalling tropical storms.

Jeff Masters