Super Typhoon Neoguri Lashing Okinawa, Headed for Japan

The outer spiral bands of Super Typhoon Neoguri are pounding the Japanese Ryukyu Islands, which include Okinawa, as the mighty storm heads north-northwest at 12 mph towards Japan. At 11:30 pm local time (13:30 UTC) Monday, Naha City in southern Okinawa was reporting heavy rain and wind gusts of 43 mph. At 8 pm local time Monday, Miyako-jima reported sustained winds of 33 mph, gusting to 53 mph. On Sunday, Neoguri strengthened to 155 mph winds, crossing the 150 mph threshold needed to be labeled a Super Typhoon. As of 8 am EDT on Monday, the typhoon had weaker slightly to 150 mph winds, and infrared satellite images showed a reduction in the intensity and areal coverage of Neoguri's heavy thunderstorms. Recent microwave satellite images showed that the weakening may be due to the onset of an eyewall replacement cycle, a common occurrence in intense tropical cyclones. In an eyewall replacement cycle, the inner eyewall shrinks to the point of instability, collapses, and is replaced by a larger-diameter outer eyewall that forms from a spiral band. This process can take several days, and typically reduces the peak winds by 10 - 20 mph. With wind shear light, 5 - 10 knots, sea surface temperatures a very warm 30 - 31°C, and very warm waters extending to great depth along the storm's path, the typhoon will have the opportunity to re-strengthen once the eyewall replacement cycle is done.


Figure 1. MODIS image from NASA's Terra satellite of Typhoon Neoguri taken at 02:05 UTC July 6, 2014. At the time, Neoguri was a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. Radar image of Super Typhoon Neoguri approaching Miyako-jima Island, Japan, at 12:45 am local time Tuesday, July 8, 2014. Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.

Forecast for Neoguri
The official Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast calls for Neoguri to complete its eyewall replacement cycle and intensify into a Category 5 typhoon with 160 mph winds by Tuesday. The official Japan Meteorological Agency forecast also calls for intensification, with the typhoon dropping from its current 930 mb pressure to 915 mb by 03 UTC on Tuesday. While intensification is certainly possible, I think it is more likely that Neoguri has peaked in intensity, given the level of disruption to the storm apparent on satellite images. The 00Z Monday runs of our two top track models, the GFS and European models, showed Neoguri passing about 150 miles southwest of Okinawa near 00 UTC Tuesday. Okinawa will be in the right front quadrant of Neoguri, but if the present track forecast holds, the top winds on the south end of the island will stay below hurricane force. Stronger winds will be felt on Miyako-jima island, south of Okinawa, which may see the weak (left) eyewall of the typhoon.


Figure 3. Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) for Neoguri will be as high as 100 J/kg/cm^2 on Monday, a level which is favorable for rapid intensification. Forecast positions from the 5 am EDT Joint Typhoon Warning Center advisory from July 7, 2014, are superimposed. Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB.

Neoguri has been caught by a trough of low pressure and is headed for the Japanese island of Kyushu, where the city of Nagasaki lies. Nagasaki had upwards of 8 inches of rain on Thursday, and parts of Kyushu saw 10 inches of rain on Friday, thanks to a stalled stationary front over the island. With the soils already saturated from these heavy rains, the torrential rains from Neoguri are sure to cause major flooding on Wednesday and Thursday. The latest 00Z and 06Z Monday runs of the European and GFS models showed a delayed arrival in Kyushu compared to earlier runs, with landfall now expected to occur between 00 - 04 UTC on Thursday. Although ocean temperatures will cool and wind shear will rise as Neoguri approaches Japan, weakening the storm, the typhoon is so large and powerful that it will likely make landfall with at least Category 2 strength, causing major damage in Japan. Neoguri is the 7th named storm and 3rd typhoon of the 2014 Western Pacific typhoon season. The other two typhoons of 2014--Typhoon Faxai and Typhoon Tapah--were both Category 1 storms. Neoguri, pronounced "NAW-guh-ree", is named after the Korean word for raccoon dog. It is also a brand of ramen noodle in Korea.

Links
Storm chasers Josh Morgerman, Mark Thomas, and James Reynolds, who intercepted Super Typhoon Haiyan at its peak fury when it devastated the Philippines last year, are on Miyako-jima island, south of Okinawa. Miyako-jima appears likely to receive a visit by the weak (left) eyewall of Neoguri, and you can follow their experience at http://www.icyclone.com/.

Japanese radar

Kadena AFB, Okinawa Facebook page

Jeff Masters