TD 10 is dead, and will rise no more!

The Air Force Hurricane Hunters flew into the remnants of TD 10 east of Puerto Rico this afternoon, and found that the system no longer had a closed circulation. Satellite images show that the system has deteriorated significantly this afternoon, with very little deep convection occurring. Surface winds measured by the Quikscat satellite are under 20 knots and TD 10's remains have become a tropical wave over the Atlantic. Regeneration into a tropical depression is very unlikely, as this would take several days, and the system will be experiencing increasing shear by Sunday.

I can't see any obvious reason why the system fell apart today; vertical wind shear values have continued to decrease, and are now down to 5-10 knots. Water vapor satellite imagery shows no dry air around the system. Situtations like this emphasize how little we understand about the formation process of tropical storms.

The remainder of the tropics are quiet. There is considerable cloud cover over portions of the southern Caribbean, but wind shear levels are near 20 knots over most of the region--too high to permit tropical development.

Jeff Masters