TD 10?

The low pressure system in the mid-Atlantic continues to look impressive on IR satellite imagery tonight, with good deep convection near the center and an improving upper-level outflow. The latest Quikscat satellite winds show a well-defined surface circulation at 10.5N 45W, with maximum winds of 20 kt. The early model run tracks are divergent, with the BAM Medium model taking the system west then west-southwest, and the GFDL taking the system northwest. The GFDL solution can be discounted, given that the steering flow appears to be solidly west to west-northwest. The SHIPS intensity model brings the storm to near hurricane strength by Monday. Keep in mind that early computer models done before a tropical depression forms are very unreliable.