The tropics: unsettled, but no major threats

Florida
The large area of thunderstorms that broke off from Stan and formed a low pressure system just north of the western tip of Cuba is still there today, pumping plenty of moisture into Florida. This system will continue to bring heavy rains to Florida the next day or two, but is not a threat to develop into a tropical depression. This low pressure system will track northwards along the cold front over the East Coast and move out to sea off the Carolina coast this weekend, and is not expected to add to the 2-5 inches of rain Tammy's remnants are bringing to the Appalachians and New England the next two days.

Atlantic areas to watch
The tropical disturbance we've been following east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is now near 10N 46W. It's convection has diminished considerably today, and is not a threat to develop into a tropical depression over the next two days.

A non-tropical 1011 mb low is northeast of Puerto Rico near 22n56w in the central Atlantic moving west-northwest at 10-15 mph. Tropical development of this this low is not expected for the next two days, but could start to occur after that. The GFS model turns this into a tropical storm by Tuesday that meanders off the East Coast of the U.S., and eventually heads out to sea.


Figure 1. Model tracks for the non-tropical low northeast of Puerto Rico.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Unsettled weather characterize most of the tropical Atlantic, and we need to keep a watchful eye for new suspect areas that may crop up.

Stan
The death toll from Hurricane Stan stands at 250, and will undoubtedly go much higher, as news reports indicate two villages 100 km west of Guatemala City are buried and unreachable. Guatemala suffered the most, with 154 dead, while El Salvador lost 65, Mexico 17, and 14 died in Nicaragua, Honduras and Costa Rica. The remnants of Stan in the Pacific are no longer dumping heavy rain on the area, but the remnants of Stan in the Atlantic near Cuba are still pulling a moist flow of air across Central America, and are expected to bring rains of 1 - 2 inches today over much of the disaster area.

Wunderground member Norman (neavilag) in Guatemala sent me these 24 hour precipitation amounts observed in his country from Stan's rains between 8am Oct 4th and 8am Oct 5th. Up to 10.5 inches (in Spanish, pulgadas) in just 24 hours!

Retalhuleu 266mm (10.5 pulgadas)
Aduana Tec�n Uman (Front Mexico) 265mm (10.5 pulgadas)
Pedro de Alvarado (Front El Salvador) 188mm (7.4 pulgadas)
San Jose 134mm (5.23 pulgadas)
Quetzaltenango 131mm (5.22 pulgadas)
Guatemala 70mm (2.75 pulgadas)

Stan's remains near Baja
The remants of Stan are still lurking near the Mexican coast by Puerto Vallarta, and still has the potential to develop into a tropical storm. This system will track northwestward over the next few days and threaten Baja California.

I'll update this by 4pm EDT if there is some significant development. Otherwise the next update will be Saturday around 11 am.

Jeff Masters