WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™
Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.Threat from TS Colin Shifts to Heavy Rain along Southeast U.S. Coast
Coastal residents from Georgia to North Carolina can expect to be deluged by rains associated with Tropical Storm Colin on Tuesday morning as the storm sweeps northeastward at an accelerating pace. In its advisory at 11 PM ET Monday, NOAA’s National Hurricane Center placed the center of Colin at 29.8°N, 83.8°W, or about 70 miles east of Apalachicola, FL, just offshore from the Big Bend Wildlife Management Area. Top sustained winds remained at 50 mph. Tropical storm warnings remained in effect along Florida's Gulf Coast from Indian Pass to Englewood and along the Southeast U.S. coast from Sebastian Inlet, FL, to Oregon Inlet, NC.
Figure 1. Angelo Memiakis, left, and Kelly Spiliotis work to deliver sandbags to the door jams of businesses along flooded Athens Street on Monday, June 6, 2016, in Tarpon Springs, FL, as Tropical Storm Colin barreled up the west coast of Florida. Residents on Florida's Gulf coast filled sandbags, schools closed early and graduation ceremonies were postponed as Gov. Rick Scott declared a state of emergency with Tropical Storm Colin churning toward the state Monday, threatening serious flooding. Image credit: Douglas R. Clifford/The Tampa Bay Times via AP.
FIgure 2. Satellite image of Tropical Storm Colin as of 12:07 am ET Tuesday, June 7, 2016.
Colin’s impact on Florida
Colin maintained its marked asymmetry throughout the day on Monday: even as it approached landfall, nearly all of Colin’s showers and thunderstorms were located east of its center (see Figure 2]. The storm's diffuse structure as it approached Florida helped cut its damage potential. As of late Monday, the severe weather impact of Colin on Florida had been minimal, with only a few reports of high wind and just one tornado reported (a waterspout moving onshore near Bonita Beach on Monday afternoon). Minor coastal flooding was widespread across Florida’s Gulf Coast as winds on the east side of Colin pushed water ashore. A storm surge of close to 3 feet was observed at Cedar Key, FL. Combined with high tide, the surge led to the highest water in years in the low-lying Cedar Key region, flooding a number of businesses and topping the water levels produced by Tropical Storm Debby in 2012.
Figure 2. Preliminary data show that a storm surge of around 3 feet (red curve minus blue curve) coincided with high tide (blue curve) on Monday afternoon, June 6, 2016, at Cedar Key, FL. Image credit: NOAA.
Figure 3. In a Monday evening outlook, NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center warned that a belt of 4” to 6” rains could fall along the immediate Southeast coast between 8 PM EDT Monday, June 6, 2016, and 8 PM Tuesday. Image credit: NOAA/NWS/WPC.
Coastal deluge in store for Southeast early Tuesday
Heavy rains developed on Monday as far northeast as North Carolina, more than 500 miles from Colin’s center. This pattern bears many of the hallmarks of a predecessor rain event (PRE), which can produce heavy rains a day or two ahead of the arrival of a tropical cyclone. PRE events typically feature a strong moisture channel extending northeastward from a tropical cyclone into a preexisting frontal zone and/or into an area of strong upward motion along the rear flank of a powerful upper-level jet stream (which was the case on Monday over the Carolinas).
Colin may have greater impact east of Florida than it did on the Sunshine State. Models agree that the storm should gain strength as it rockets northeastward parallel to the coast from Georgia to North Carolina on Tuesday morning. By the time it sweeps east of the NC Outer Banks on Tuesday afternoon, Colin could have winds on the high side of tropical storm strength, although by that point it will be evolving into a post-tropical cyclone. Flash flood watches are in effect from the northern Georgia coast to the Outer Banks, which have already been hard hit by torrential rains associated with Tropical Storm Bonnie. Cape Hatteras, NC, has received more than 6” of rain in the first six days of June after a record 12.67” in May, most of that during Memorial Day weekend.
I’ll have a full update on Colin--and on TD 1-E, the first tropical depression of the year in the Northeast Pacific--by midday Tuesday. We will also be posting updates on Colin at a WU liveblog.
Bob Henson
Figure 1. Angelo Memiakis, left, and Kelly Spiliotis work to deliver sandbags to the door jams of businesses along flooded Athens Street on Monday, June 6, 2016, in Tarpon Springs, FL, as Tropical Storm Colin barreled up the west coast of Florida. Residents on Florida's Gulf coast filled sandbags, schools closed early and graduation ceremonies were postponed as Gov. Rick Scott declared a state of emergency with Tropical Storm Colin churning toward the state Monday, threatening serious flooding. Image credit: Douglas R. Clifford/The Tampa Bay Times via AP.
FIgure 2. Satellite image of Tropical Storm Colin as of 12:07 am ET Tuesday, June 7, 2016.
Colin’s impact on Florida
Colin maintained its marked asymmetry throughout the day on Monday: even as it approached landfall, nearly all of Colin’s showers and thunderstorms were located east of its center (see Figure 2]. The storm's diffuse structure as it approached Florida helped cut its damage potential. As of late Monday, the severe weather impact of Colin on Florida had been minimal, with only a few reports of high wind and just one tornado reported (a waterspout moving onshore near Bonita Beach on Monday afternoon). Minor coastal flooding was widespread across Florida’s Gulf Coast as winds on the east side of Colin pushed water ashore. A storm surge of close to 3 feet was observed at Cedar Key, FL. Combined with high tide, the surge led to the highest water in years in the low-lying Cedar Key region, flooding a number of businesses and topping the water levels produced by Tropical Storm Debby in 2012.
Figure 2. Preliminary data show that a storm surge of around 3 feet (red curve minus blue curve) coincided with high tide (blue curve) on Monday afternoon, June 6, 2016, at Cedar Key, FL. Image credit: NOAA.
Figure 3. In a Monday evening outlook, NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center warned that a belt of 4” to 6” rains could fall along the immediate Southeast coast between 8 PM EDT Monday, June 6, 2016, and 8 PM Tuesday. Image credit: NOAA/NWS/WPC.
Coastal deluge in store for Southeast early Tuesday
Heavy rains developed on Monday as far northeast as North Carolina, more than 500 miles from Colin’s center. This pattern bears many of the hallmarks of a predecessor rain event (PRE), which can produce heavy rains a day or two ahead of the arrival of a tropical cyclone. PRE events typically feature a strong moisture channel extending northeastward from a tropical cyclone into a preexisting frontal zone and/or into an area of strong upward motion along the rear flank of a powerful upper-level jet stream (which was the case on Monday over the Carolinas).
Colin may have greater impact east of Florida than it did on the Sunshine State. Models agree that the storm should gain strength as it rockets northeastward parallel to the coast from Georgia to North Carolina on Tuesday morning. By the time it sweeps east of the NC Outer Banks on Tuesday afternoon, Colin could have winds on the high side of tropical storm strength, although by that point it will be evolving into a post-tropical cyclone. Flash flood watches are in effect from the northern Georgia coast to the Outer Banks, which have already been hard hit by torrential rains associated with Tropical Storm Bonnie. Cape Hatteras, NC, has received more than 6” of rain in the first six days of June after a record 12.67” in May, most of that during Memorial Day weekend.
I’ll have a full update on Colin--and on TD 1-E, the first tropical depression of the year in the Northeast Pacific--by midday Tuesday. We will also be posting updates on Colin at a WU liveblog.
Bob Henson
1st Lt. Kelsie Carpenter, 53rd Weather Recon took photo of a waterspout during Hurrican Hunter mission to #Colin pic.twitter.com/MbjlShNojC
— Marshall Shepherd (@DrShepherd2013) June 6, 2016
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