WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™
Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.Tropical update
The low pressure system that almost became Tropical Storm Beryl yesterday churned up the East Coast last night, bringing heavy rain, high winds, and coastal flooding to the Mid-Atlantic coast. Winds gusts as high as 52 mph were recorded in Dover, Delaware early this morning, and tides of 1-3 feet above normal were seen all along the coast. The additional rain was unwelcome for Maryland, which has seen over a foot of rain in some areas over the past week. In suburban Washington D.C., 500 people were evacuated this morning due to the possible failure of the Lake Needwood dam on the north side of Rockville.
Figure 1. Estimated rainfall from the week's rains have exceeded one foot in some areas of Maryland.
Tropical wave approaching the Windward Islands
A tropical wave approaching the Windward Islands has become less organized since yesterday. Wind shear has increased from 10 knots yesterday to 25 knots today, and a surface circulation is no longer evident on visible satellite imagery. The wave will bring heavy rain and gusty winds to Barbados this afternoon and most of the remainder of the Windward islands tonight, as it moves west-northwest at 20 mph. The wave does have the potential for some slow re-organization over the next two days, as the GFS computer model is indicating that an area of lower wind shear may develop over the wave. However, high wind shear is forecast to dominate most of the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic over the coming week, and it will be difficult for tropical storm formation to occur during this period. Only the Canadian model is forecasting that this tropical wave will develop into a tropical storm, and this model has been overdeveloping many tropical systems this June.
Figure 2.Latest satellite image of the tropical wave approaching the Windward Islands.
Figure 3. Model forecast tracks of the tropical wave approaching the Windward Islands.
Tonight's interview on Internet radio
Tonight starting at 9:30 pm EDT, I'll be the guest on Tropical Round Table, a live streaming audio show hosted by http://radio.nhcwx.com/. I'll be answering questions from the host, Mike Naso, for about 20 minutes. The show starts at 9 pm and runs for an hour.
Jeff Masters
Figure 1. Estimated rainfall from the week's rains have exceeded one foot in some areas of Maryland.
Tropical wave approaching the Windward Islands
A tropical wave approaching the Windward Islands has become less organized since yesterday. Wind shear has increased from 10 knots yesterday to 25 knots today, and a surface circulation is no longer evident on visible satellite imagery. The wave will bring heavy rain and gusty winds to Barbados this afternoon and most of the remainder of the Windward islands tonight, as it moves west-northwest at 20 mph. The wave does have the potential for some slow re-organization over the next two days, as the GFS computer model is indicating that an area of lower wind shear may develop over the wave. However, high wind shear is forecast to dominate most of the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic over the coming week, and it will be difficult for tropical storm formation to occur during this period. Only the Canadian model is forecasting that this tropical wave will develop into a tropical storm, and this model has been overdeveloping many tropical systems this June.
Figure 2.Latest satellite image of the tropical wave approaching the Windward Islands.
Figure 3. Model forecast tracks of the tropical wave approaching the Windward Islands.
Tonight's interview on Internet radio
Tonight starting at 9:30 pm EDT, I'll be the guest on Tropical Round Table, a live streaming audio show hosted by http://radio.nhcwx.com/. I'll be answering questions from the host, Mike Naso, for about 20 minutes. The show starts at 9 pm and runs for an hour.
Jeff Masters
Flooding Old Forge PA
Fury of the Falls
The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.