Watching the waters near Florida

Heavy thunderstorms are on the increase in the waters east of Florida this morning along an old cold front that pushed off the coast. Wind shear is 10 knots along this old front, and is forecast to remain 10 knots or lower through Tuesday. This is low enough to allow some development to occur, and we'll have to watch this area closely. Most of the computer models are forecasting that something will develop along the front, as early as Monday. The models are very uncertain about where such a development might go. If something develops relatively close to Florida, the preferred track appears to be across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico. A more northerly track towards the Carolinas is also one of the model solutions. If something develops further from Florida, the preferred track is northeastward towards Bermuda. We'll just have to wait and see where the focus of development may be along the old front.


Figure 1. Current satellite of the Florida region.


Figure 2. Preliminary models tracks for the East Coast disturbance.

Tropical wave near Barbados
A tropical wave near Barbados is producing heavy rain in the southern Lesser Antilles Islands today as it moves westward at 10-15 mph. Barbados has reported some heavy rain with this system, but winds have been below 20 mph on the island, and the QuikSCAT satellite did not see any winds over 20 mph in a 6:14am EDT pass today. While the wave is an area of low wind shear (5-10 knots), it is embedded in a large area of dry air, which should keep development slow today. Wind shear is expected to remain below 10 knots in the Eastern Caribbean through Tuesday, so the wave has some potential for development once the dry air surrounding it becomes more dilute.


Figure 3. Preliminary models tracks for the Barbados tropical wave.

I'll have an update this afternoon if changing conditions warrant; otherwise, see you Monday morning!

Jeff Masters