Western Caribbean development

An intense area of deep convection has developed off the northeast coast of Honduras this morning. This area has some impressive cold cloud-top temperatures and the beginnings of some upper level outflow to the north. Wind shear is about 10 knots over the area, which may allow some slow development as the disturbance moves west along the northern coast of Honduras over the next day or so. The disturbance is probably too close to land to allow development into a tropical depression, and the wind shear is not forecasted to drop any further. However, this disturbance will bring very heavy rains to northeast Honduras today. This area is still reeling from the heavy rains from Hurricane Beta that washed out bridges and cut roads. Thousands of people are still in shelters in this area, which is cut off from the rest of the country. Fortunately, no deaths or injuries have been attributed to Hurricane Beta's floods and winds.

Jeff Masters