Western Caribbean disturbance aims to soak the Yucatan

Unsettled weather continues in the Western Caribbean in association with a tropical disturbance (93L) that has developed a weak surface circulation this afternoon. The circulation center of 93L was at 20N 83W at 3pm EST this afternoon, moving west-northwest at about 15 mph. The disturbance is under 20 knots of wind shear. This shear is expected to increase to 30 knots on Wednesday, so I am not expecting 93L to develop into a tropical depression. The disturbance should bring heavy rains to Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. At this time, it does not appear that 93L will affect South Florida, although moisture from the surface trough of low pressure 93L is embedded in will increase the chance of rain by Wednesday night. QuikSCAT satellite-measured winds were in the 20-30 mph range southwest of Jamaica at 6:03am EST this morning. 93L will pass over buoy 42056 at 20N 85W tonight. Winds at the buoy this afternoon have been less than 15 mph.


Figure 2. Preliminary models tracks for the Western Caribbean disturbance.

In the Pacific, Typhoon Cimaron has made an abrupt course change, and is now on track to strike China near Hong Kong on Friday as a tropical storm.

Jeff Masters