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Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.Winter Storms Hustle Across United States; Ice Potential Rears Its Head for Late Week
The much-anticipated twin winter storms affecting the U.S. West and East Coasts over the weekend brought many, if not most, of the predicted impacts. A nose of warm air pushed further inland than expected over the Southeast, which kept snow totals near the low end of hopes and/or fears from northern Georgia (central Atlanta missed out completely on snow accumulations) to southeast Virginia. Update: Parts of the Hampton Roads, VA, area picked up less than 6", but updated maps show that a swath of 9" - 12" totals extended from central VA across the northern Hampton Roads area and onward to the Delmarva.
Figure 1. Snow lovers in the Atlanta area were mostly disappointed as freezing rain and sleet predominated during the winter storm on Friday and Saturday, January 6-7, 2017. In this scene, ice covers a fence in Atlanta’s Piedmont Park on Saturday. Image credit: AP Photo/David Goldman.
Figure 2. Snow totals from this past weekend (Jan. 6-8, 2017) illustrate how dramatically accumulations from a snowstorm can vary across the New York/Long Island area. Image credit: NWS/New York.
It did turn out to be a wild Saturday night across eastern Long Island and southeast Massachusetts, where blizzard and near-blizzard conditions were the rule and snow amounts were impressive. Orient Point, NY, racked up a storm total of 12.5”, and an observer in East Bridgewater, MA, reported 19.5”.
A brief but intense shot of cold followed the snows across the South and mid-Atlantic. Oklahoma City, OK, dipped to -3°F on Sunday, tying the record for the date; it’s only the second time OKC has made it below 0°F this century (the other was -5°F on Feb. 10, 2011). Richmond, VA, dropped to 0°F on Monday, breaking the daily record of 1°F set in 1940, and Westhampton, NY, plummeted to -9°F, among the coldest readings since observations began there in 1951.
Figure 3. A firefighter from Sparks, NV, takes a picture of the rising Truckee River on Sunday, January 8, 2017, where it runs near the Grand Sierra hotel-casino along a line that divides the cities of Reno and Sparks. The Truckee crested in Reno early Monday morning. More than 1,000 homes were evacuated due to overflowing streams and drainage ditches in the area, which remains under a flood warning through Tuesday. Image credit: AP Photo/Scott Sonner.
Hellacious winds, rain, and snow batter the Sierra
Residents of central California and western Nevada dodged floods and mudslides on Monday after a powerful Pacific storm system blitzed the area. Rainfall amounts ended up falling short of the most ominous projections across most lower elevations of central California, with about 2” falling in San Francisco and about 2.5” in Sacramento. Although street flooding was widespread across the Bay Area, it wasn’t extreme by historical standards. At mid-morning Monday, only 21 of 397 river gauges across central California and western Nevada were experiencing flood conditions.
The storm came closer to expectations in and near the Sierra, where huge amounts of precipitation fell, switching from snow to rain and back to snow at some elevations. Liquid-water equivalents (rain and snowmelt equivalent) for the 48 hours through Monday morning ranged from 5” to more than 13” across the northern Sierra. The inundation pushed the Truckee River out of its banks in the downtown Reno/Sparks area. Many roads were closed in the area, including parts of Interstate 80 in both Nevada and California. About 25 miles east of Reno, the Truckee was in major flood stage near Wadsworth on Monday morning. Perhaps the single most impressive statistic of the event came on Sunday morning, as wind gusts hit a phenomenal 174 mph near the summits of the Squaw Valley ski area.
Figure 4. Wind gusts topped out at 174 mph at an automated station on the summit of California’s Ward Mountain, located in the Squaw Valley ski area just west of Lake Tahoe, at 11:00 am PST Sunday, January 8, 2017. Sustained winds were in the vicinity of 100 mph for hours. Image credit: NWS/MesoWest.
Figure 5. A 2006 photo of California’s Pioneer Cabin Tree and its iconic tunnel in Calavares Big Trees State Park. Image credit: Wikimedia Commons/NX1Z.
Pioneer Cabin tree bites the dust
The most famous victim of the weekend storm was the Pioneer Cabin tree in Calavares Big Trees State Park. Iconic for the passageway carved into its base in the 1880s, it was one of the oldest and most venerable of the “drive-through” trees that were a California staple for decades until the rise of environmental consciousness put them out of style. Located in a grove of dozens of giant sequoia trees, some believed to be as old as 2000 years, Pioneer Cabin tree was barely hanging on. Joan Allday, a volunteer at the state park, told SFGate that “there was one branch alive at the top.” A combination of high wind and sodden soil dealt the tree its final blow early on Sunday afternoon. Calaveras Big Trees Association has a memorial page on Facebook in honor of the felled giant.
More winter storminess ahead this week
There’s not much of a break in store for storm-battered central California. Another wet system will roll through the region Tuesday and Wednesday, and there is no sign of the active Pacific storm track leaving the area anytime soon, which will boost the risk of significant flooding over time. Floodgates on the Sacramento River upstream from the city of Sacramento are being opened by the California Department of Water Resources for the first time since 2005.
Toward Friday and Saturday, we’ll have to keep a close eye on a late-week Pacific storm that may pull extreme amounts of moisture for midwinter atop an Arctic air mass predicted to be lodged over the southern and central Great Plains and mid-Mississippi Valley. The cold surface air will be too shallow for snow, and perhaps even for sleet, so rain and freezing rain appear to be the most likely precipitation types--and the amounts could be quite large (see Figure 6 below). This set-up bears many of the classic earmarks of a major ice storm, but it’s way too early to know whether reality will Iive up to some of the high-end model projections, which are indeed ominous. To produce a worst-case scenario, the arrival and departure of the Arctic air mass would have to be well synchronized with the timing of the heaviest rain. Even if the ice does materialize, it could affect only a narrow strip along the north edge of the heavier rain, and that location will be difficult to pin down more than a day or two in advance. The potential is worth taking seriously, though, especially from the Texas Panhandle to Missouri and perhaps eastward as far as Ohio. NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center warned on Monday in its national extended forecast discussion that “a major icing event is possible” across parts of OK/KS/MO, and the NWS office in OKC/Norman issued an extensive and candid discussion of the scenario.
We’ll be back with a new post on Tuesday on the U.S. climate roundup for December 2016 and the year as a whole.
Bob Henson
Figure 6. Predicted 7-day precipitation totals (rain and snowmelt equivalent) for the period from 12Z (7:00 am EST) Monday, January 9, 2017, through Monday, January 16. Nearly all of the precipitation depicted in the southern Great Plains is forecast to occur from Thursday into the weekend. Image credit: NOAA/NWS/WPC.
Figure 1. Snow lovers in the Atlanta area were mostly disappointed as freezing rain and sleet predominated during the winter storm on Friday and Saturday, January 6-7, 2017. In this scene, ice covers a fence in Atlanta’s Piedmont Park on Saturday. Image credit: AP Photo/David Goldman.
Figure 2. Snow totals from this past weekend (Jan. 6-8, 2017) illustrate how dramatically accumulations from a snowstorm can vary across the New York/Long Island area. Image credit: NWS/New York.
It did turn out to be a wild Saturday night across eastern Long Island and southeast Massachusetts, where blizzard and near-blizzard conditions were the rule and snow amounts were impressive. Orient Point, NY, racked up a storm total of 12.5”, and an observer in East Bridgewater, MA, reported 19.5”.
A brief but intense shot of cold followed the snows across the South and mid-Atlantic. Oklahoma City, OK, dipped to -3°F on Sunday, tying the record for the date; it’s only the second time OKC has made it below 0°F this century (the other was -5°F on Feb. 10, 2011). Richmond, VA, dropped to 0°F on Monday, breaking the daily record of 1°F set in 1940, and Westhampton, NY, plummeted to -9°F, among the coldest readings since observations began there in 1951.
Figure 3. A firefighter from Sparks, NV, takes a picture of the rising Truckee River on Sunday, January 8, 2017, where it runs near the Grand Sierra hotel-casino along a line that divides the cities of Reno and Sparks. The Truckee crested in Reno early Monday morning. More than 1,000 homes were evacuated due to overflowing streams and drainage ditches in the area, which remains under a flood warning through Tuesday. Image credit: AP Photo/Scott Sonner.
Hellacious winds, rain, and snow batter the Sierra
Residents of central California and western Nevada dodged floods and mudslides on Monday after a powerful Pacific storm system blitzed the area. Rainfall amounts ended up falling short of the most ominous projections across most lower elevations of central California, with about 2” falling in San Francisco and about 2.5” in Sacramento. Although street flooding was widespread across the Bay Area, it wasn’t extreme by historical standards. At mid-morning Monday, only 21 of 397 river gauges across central California and western Nevada were experiencing flood conditions.
The storm came closer to expectations in and near the Sierra, where huge amounts of precipitation fell, switching from snow to rain and back to snow at some elevations. Liquid-water equivalents (rain and snowmelt equivalent) for the 48 hours through Monday morning ranged from 5” to more than 13” across the northern Sierra. The inundation pushed the Truckee River out of its banks in the downtown Reno/Sparks area. Many roads were closed in the area, including parts of Interstate 80 in both Nevada and California. About 25 miles east of Reno, the Truckee was in major flood stage near Wadsworth on Monday morning. Perhaps the single most impressive statistic of the event came on Sunday morning, as wind gusts hit a phenomenal 174 mph near the summits of the Squaw Valley ski area.
Figure 4. Wind gusts topped out at 174 mph at an automated station on the summit of California’s Ward Mountain, located in the Squaw Valley ski area just west of Lake Tahoe, at 11:00 am PST Sunday, January 8, 2017. Sustained winds were in the vicinity of 100 mph for hours. Image credit: NWS/MesoWest.
Figure 5. A 2006 photo of California’s Pioneer Cabin Tree and its iconic tunnel in Calavares Big Trees State Park. Image credit: Wikimedia Commons/NX1Z.
Pioneer Cabin tree bites the dust
The most famous victim of the weekend storm was the Pioneer Cabin tree in Calavares Big Trees State Park. Iconic for the passageway carved into its base in the 1880s, it was one of the oldest and most venerable of the “drive-through” trees that were a California staple for decades until the rise of environmental consciousness put them out of style. Located in a grove of dozens of giant sequoia trees, some believed to be as old as 2000 years, Pioneer Cabin tree was barely hanging on. Joan Allday, a volunteer at the state park, told SFGate that “there was one branch alive at the top.” A combination of high wind and sodden soil dealt the tree its final blow early on Sunday afternoon. Calaveras Big Trees Association has a memorial page on Facebook in honor of the felled giant.
More winter storminess ahead this week
There’s not much of a break in store for storm-battered central California. Another wet system will roll through the region Tuesday and Wednesday, and there is no sign of the active Pacific storm track leaving the area anytime soon, which will boost the risk of significant flooding over time. Floodgates on the Sacramento River upstream from the city of Sacramento are being opened by the California Department of Water Resources for the first time since 2005.
Toward Friday and Saturday, we’ll have to keep a close eye on a late-week Pacific storm that may pull extreme amounts of moisture for midwinter atop an Arctic air mass predicted to be lodged over the southern and central Great Plains and mid-Mississippi Valley. The cold surface air will be too shallow for snow, and perhaps even for sleet, so rain and freezing rain appear to be the most likely precipitation types--and the amounts could be quite large (see Figure 6 below). This set-up bears many of the classic earmarks of a major ice storm, but it’s way too early to know whether reality will Iive up to some of the high-end model projections, which are indeed ominous. To produce a worst-case scenario, the arrival and departure of the Arctic air mass would have to be well synchronized with the timing of the heaviest rain. Even if the ice does materialize, it could affect only a narrow strip along the north edge of the heavier rain, and that location will be difficult to pin down more than a day or two in advance. The potential is worth taking seriously, though, especially from the Texas Panhandle to Missouri and perhaps eastward as far as Ohio. NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center warned on Monday in its national extended forecast discussion that “a major icing event is possible” across parts of OK/KS/MO, and the NWS office in OKC/Norman issued an extensive and candid discussion of the scenario.
We’ll be back with a new post on Tuesday on the U.S. climate roundup for December 2016 and the year as a whole.
Bob Henson
Figure 6. Predicted 7-day precipitation totals (rain and snowmelt equivalent) for the period from 12Z (7:00 am EST) Monday, January 9, 2017, through Monday, January 16. Nearly all of the precipitation depicted in the southern Great Plains is forecast to occur from Thursday into the weekend. Image credit: NOAA/NWS/WPC.
Check out these precipitation totals over the past week! Some locations approaching or even exceeding 20"! #CAstorm #CAflood #NVflood17 pic.twitter.com/ux2IQJFySa
— NWS CNRFC (@NWSCNRFC) January 9, 2017
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