Tropical wave 99L is spreading heavy rains over Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula as the storm heads west-northwest at about 10 mph. Conditions are favorable for development, but 99L will not be able to develop until it finishes crossing Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and emerges into the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche on Monday.
JeffMasters, • 4:41 PM GMT on August 31, 2014
A tropical wave in the Western Caribbean was designated Invest 99L by the National Hurricane Center on Friday night, and is headed west-northwest at about 15 mph. Although conditions are favorable for development, 99L will likely not have enough time to develop before crossing Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday. Conditions will be even more favorable for development on Monday when the wave will emerge in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche.
JeffMasters, • 2:32 PM GMT on August 30, 2014
Hurricane Cristobal ceased to be at 11 am EDT on Friday, as the storm completed its transition to a powerful extratropical storm. With Cristobal's transition to an extratropical storm and the demise of the Eastern Pacific's Tropical Storm Marie earlier today, there are now no named tropical cyclones anywhere in the world--an unusual situation for what is traditionally one of the busiest days of the Northern Hemisphere's tropical cyclone season.
JeffMasters, • 3:28 PM GMT on August 29, 2014
Hurricane Cristobal continues to churn northeastwards over the Atlantic towards Iceland. Satellite loops show that Cristobal has its most impressive appearance of its lifetime, with a large symmetric area of heavy thunderstorms. Cristobal will merge with a frontal zone on Friday and transition to a powerful extratropical storm that will likely bring tropical storm-force winds and heavy rain to Iceland on Sunday night.
JeffMasters, • 3:38 PM GMT on August 28, 2014
JeffMasters, • 5:05 PM GMT on August 27, 2014
It doesn't look much like hurricane, but the Hurricane Hunters measured surface winds around 75 mph on Monday evening and Tuesday morning in Hurricane Cristobal, making it the third hurricane of the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season. These missions proved the value of hurricane hunter flights, since there is no way that we would have known Cristobal was a hurricane based on satellite data. The storm is stretched out in a long line of heavy thunderstorms, has no eye or low-level spiral bands, and is giving early August's Hurricane Bertha some stiff competition for ugliest Atlantic hurricane of the century.
JeffMasters, • 12:25 PM GMT on August 26, 2014
Tropical Storm Cristobal continues to dump heavy rains over the Central and Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands as the storm heads slowly north-northeastwards out to sea. Wind shear is expected to relax by Wednesday as a trough of low pressure captures the storm and accelerates it to the northeast, out to sea. Cristobal will likely be intensifying into a Category 1 hurricane as it brushes Bermuda on Wednesday.
JeffMasters, • 3:23 PM GMT on August 25, 2014
JeffMasters, • 4:45 PM GMT on August 24, 2014
JeffMasters, • 8:46 PM GMT on August 23, 2014
JeffMasters, • 3:41 PM GMT on August 23, 2014
JeffMasters, • 7:35 PM GMT on August 22, 2014
JeffMasters, • 3:39 PM GMT on August 22, 2014
In 2013 the official NHC forecast for Atlantic storms was better than any individual computer models at most forecast time periods, although NOAA's HWRF model did slightly better than the NHC official forecast for 5-day forecasts. Once again, the European Center (ECMWF) and GFS models were the top performers, when summing up all track forecasts made for all Atlantic named storms.
JeffMasters, • 6:25 PM GMT on August 21, 2014
Heavy rain showers are sweeping through the Lesser Antilles Islands as a strong tropical wave (Invest 96L) heads west-northwestwards at about 15 - 20 mph through the islands. Satellite loops on Thursday morning showed a pretty unimpressive system, with a broad, elongated surface circulation and a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity that had changed little in intensity or organization since Wednesday. The storm was poorly organized, with a clumpy appearance and just a few small low-level spiral bands.
JeffMasters, • 3:05 PM GMT on August 21, 2014
A tropical wave (96L) located near 11°N 53°W, several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, is headed west-northwestwards at about 10 - 15 mph. Satellite loops on Wednesday morning showed the wave had a broad, elongated surface circulation and a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity that was steadily increasing in areal coverage and intensity. The storm was poorly organized, though, with a clumpy appearance and just a few low-level spiral bands.
JeffMasters, • 2:14 PM GMT on August 20, 2014
A tropical wave located in the Central Atlantic near 10°N 50.5°W, about 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, was designated Invest 96L by NHC on Tuesday afternoon, and is headed westwards to west-northwestwards at about 10 - 15 mph. Two of our three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis, the UKMET and GFS models, predicted that 96L would develop into a tropical storm after passing through the Lesser Antilles. When both of these models show development, the odds increase that development will occur.
JeffMasters, • 7:58 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
A tropical wave located in the Central Atlantic near 11°N 48°W, about 1,000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, is headed westwards at about 10 mph. Satellite loops show the wave has a broad, elongated surface circulation and a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity that is poorly organized. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day and 5-day development odds of 10% and 20%, respectively. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate the disturbance on Thursday afternoon, if necessary.
JeffMasters, • 3:25 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
July 2014 was Earth's fourth warmest July since records began in 1880, said NOAA today. Global ocean temperatures during July 2014 were tied with July 2009 for the warmest July on record, and global land temperatures in July 2014 were the 10th warmest on record. The year-to-date January - July period was the 3rd warmest on record for the globe.
JeffMasters, • 4:53 PM GMT on August 18, 2014
The main characters of "Into the Storm" were its tornadoes, and they certainly put on an impressive performance that was thrilling at times. But great special effects can't make up for awful plot, dialogue, and acting, and I give "Into the Storm" one and-a-half stars out of four.
JeffMasters, • 4:30 PM GMT on August 17, 2014
A tropical wave (Invest 95L) that moved off the coast of Africa on Friday was between the Cape Verde Islands and Africa on Saturday morning, but is headed west-northwest into drier air. Satellite loops show the wave has a closed surface circulation, but heavy thunderstorm activity is lacking due to high wind shear of 25 knots and dry air.
JeffMasters, • 3:40 PM GMT on August 16, 2014
There are two tropical waves in the Eastern Atlantic worth mentioning today--one right at the coast of Africa, and another about 700 miles to its west, a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Both of these waves are headed west-northwest towards much drier air, and none of the reliable models for tropical cyclone formation is predicting development during the coming five days.
JeffMasters, • 2:57 PM GMT on August 15, 2014
Tropical Storm Julio, located about 700 miles north of Honolulu, Hawaii, is nearing its end as high wind shear rips away at it. Julio was a hurricane most of this week in the waters north of Hawaii where no hurricane had ever been recorded before. There are no tropical cyclone threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for tropical cyclone formation is predicting development during the coming five days.
JeffMasters, • 3:00 PM GMT on August 14, 2014
An extreme deluge nearly unprecedented in Baltimore history swamped the city in flood waters that closed multiple expressways on Tuesday afternoon. Officially, 6.30" of rain fell at the Baltimore Airport on Tuesday. This was their second wettest calendar day in history.
JeffMasters, • 1:59 PM GMT on August 13, 2014
An extreme deluge nearly unprecedented in Detroit history brought the Motor City to a virtual standstill during the evening rush hour on Monday, with 4.57" of rain falling at the official measurement site at Detroit Metro Airport. The only wetter day in Detroit history (4.75") occurred on July 31 - August 1, 1925.
JeffMasters, • 5:43 PM GMT on August 12, 2014
Tropical wave 94L was located near 14°N, 35°W on Tuesday morning, but is no longer a threat to develop. Satellite loops show that the wave has lost nearly all of its heavy thunderstorms, and water vapor satellite images and the Saharan Air Layer analysis show that 94L is now embedded in a very dry environment.
JeffMasters, • 3:09 PM GMT on August 12, 2014
A tropical wave (Invest 94L) that moved off the coast of Africa on Saturday was located near 12°N, 26°W on Monday morning, and could potentially be a tropical storm when it arrives in the Lesser Antilles Islands on Saturday.
JeffMasters, • 2:58 PM GMT on August 11, 2014
A tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa on Saturday was located near 11°N, 21°W on Sunday morning, and was designated Invest 94L by NHC . Satellite loops show the wave has a modest amount of spin and respectable amount of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear was a high 25 - 30 knots, but the 8 am EDT Sunday run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear would fall to the moderate range on Monday afternoon, then to the low range on Tuesday afternoon.
JeffMasters, • 2:58 PM GMT on August 10, 2014
Tropical Storm Iselle has dissipated after making landfall along the southeast shore of Hawaii's Big Island near 9 am EDT (3 am HST) Friday as a tropical storm with 60 mph winds. Iselle is only the second tropical storm on record to hit the Big Island, and was the strongest. Iselle brought torrential rains of up to 4" per hour to the Big Island; two locations received over 14" of rain. Iselle did considerable damage on the Big Island, downing trees, knocking down power lines, and damaging a few homes .
JeffMasters, • 2:59 PM GMT on August 09, 2014
Tropical Storm Iselle made landfall along the southeast shore of Hawaii's Big Island near 9 am EDT (3 am HST) as a tropical storm with 60 mph winds. Iselle is only the second tropical storm on record to hit the Big Island, and was the strongest. Iselle is bringing torrential rains to the Big Island, where a rain gauge near Pahala indicated rain rates at nearly 4 inches per hour. A Flash Flood Warning is in effect for this area, and all of the Hawaiian Islands are under a Flash Flood Watch today.
JeffMasters, • 3:50 PM GMT on August 08, 2014
Hurricane warnings continue for the Big Island as Hurricane Iselle closes in as a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. The latest center fix from the Hurricane Hunters at 22:55 UTC Thursday (6:55 pm EDT or 12:55 HST) found the pressure had risen to 992 mb, up 7 mb since this morning. They also noted that the eyewall had collapsed, so Iselle is weakening. However, this weakening had yet to translate to a reduction in the maximum sustained surface winds, which were still 75 - 80 mph during their last two passes through the center.
JeffMasters, • 12:31 AM GMT on August 08, 2014
Hurricane warnings are flying for the Big Island as Hurricane Iselle bears down on Hawaii as a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Thursday morning satellite images showed very little weakening of Iselle. The eyewall's heavy thunderstorms continued to maintain their intensity and areal coverage, and the eye was still prominent. The outer spiral bands of Iselle had already arrived on the Big Island as of early Thursday morning.
JeffMasters, • 4:13 PM GMT on August 07, 2014
Rare twin Category 1 hurricanes are nearing Hawaii as Hurricane Iselle, with 85 mph winds, and Hurricane Julio, with 75 mph winds, steam west-northwest towards the islands. Both hurricanes are expected to weaken to tropical storms before they affect Hawaii. Iselle is the bigger danger, as it is expected to make a direct hit on Thursday evening, while Julio's center is expected to pass about 100 miles to the northeast of the islands on Sunday.
JeffMasters, • 5:05 PM GMT on August 06, 2014
A 2013 modeling study, "Projected increase in tropical cyclones near Hawaii", found that global warming is expected to increase the incidence of tropical storms and hurricanes in Hawaii. From 1979 to 2003, both observational records and their model documented that only every four years, on average, did a tropical cyclone come near Hawaii. The projections for the end of this century show a two-to-three-fold increase for this region.
JeffMasters, • 1:02 AM GMT on August 06, 2014
Hurricane Iselle began a gradual weakening process overnight, falling from a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds to Category 3 with 125 mph winds at 11 am EDT Tuesday. Ocean temperatures beneath the storm are about 26°C, which is marginal for maintaining a hurricane. Iselle is headed westwards at 9 mph towards Hawaii, and will begin affecting the Hawaiian Islands Thursday night.
JeffMasters, • 3:45 PM GMT on August 05, 2014
Hurricane Iselle continued to intensify overnight, reaching Category 3 strength with 125 mph winds at 5 am EDT on Monday. Iselle is likely at peak intensity, since ocean temperatures beneath the storm are now 26°C, which is marginal for maintaining a hurricane. Iselle is headed westwards at 10 mph towards Hawaii, and could affect the Hawaiian Islands as a tropical storm by Thursday night.
JeffMasters, • 2:10 PM GMT on August 04, 2014
Tropical Storm Bertha was cruising northwest out of the Southeast Bahama Islands at 20 mph on Sunday morning, and was spreading gusty winds and heavy rain showers across the Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands. A personal weather station at Cockburn Harbour in the Caicos Islands reported a wind gust of 34 mph and 0.48" of rain as of noon Sunday. Rainfall amounts of 1 - 3" on Saturday and Sunday were common over Puerto Rico from Tropical Storm Bertha, and rainfall amounts of 6 - 8 inches over the center of the island brought several rivers close to flood stage.
JeffMasters, • 5:00 PM GMT on August 03, 2014
Tropical Storm Bertha was racing west-northwest across the Northeast Caribbean at 21 mph on Saturday morning, spreading gusty winds and heavy rain showers across the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and islands of the Northern Lesser Antilles. Visible satellite loops on Saturday morning showed that although Bertha was more organized than on Friday, the storm had only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms. The misshapen structure of the storm suggested that dry air and wind shear continued to be a problem for it, and Bertha's lack of organization was also apparent on Puerto Rico radar, where very little low-level spiral banding was apparent.
JeffMasters, • 2:06 PM GMT on August 02, 2014
The center of Tropical Storm Bertha was passing between the Lesser Antilles islands of Martinique and Dominica near 4 pm EDT on Friday, but has brought little in the way of strong winds or heavy rain to the Lesser Antilles Islands so far. As of 4 pm, Martinique had received 0.35" of rain, with top winds of 22 mph. Dominica had a wind gust of 43 mph at 4 pm EDT.
JeffMasters, • 8:19 PM GMT on August 01, 2014
Tropical Storm Warnings are flying Friday morning in most of the Lesser Antilles Islands as Tropical Storm Bertha, with top winds of 45 mph, cruises west-northwest at 20 mph towards the islands. The formation of Bertha on August 1 was right on schedule, according to climatology from 1966 - 2009: the Atlantic's 2nd named storm has historically formed on August 1 during this period.
JeffMasters, • 1:28 PM GMT on August 01, 2014